Global| Nov 15 2016U.S. Import Price Increase Powered by Oil
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Import prices improved 0.5% during October (-0.2% y/y) following a 0.2% September increase, revised from 0.1%. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These figures are not seasonally adjusted. A [...]
Import prices improved 0.5% during October (-0.2% y/y) following a 0.2% September increase, revised from 0.1%. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These figures are not seasonally adjusted.
A 7.5% increase (4.5% y/y) in petroleum import prices led the rise in the overall price index, as it followed a 1.6% gain. Nonpetroleum import prices eased 0.1% (-0.4% y/y) after being unchanged. Prices for non-oil industrial supplies & materials declined 0.6% (-0.7% y/y) for the second straight month. Foods, feeds & beverage costs fell 0.6% (+4.0% y/y) after a 0.4% gain. Motor vehicle & parts prices improved 0.3% (0.0% y/y) after a 0.1% rise. Nonauto consumer goods prices rose 0.1% (-0.5% y/y), the first rise in five months. Capital goods prices declined 0.2% (-1.4% y/y) and reversed September's increase. Capital goods prices excluding computers, peripherals & semiconductors remained unchanged (-1.0% y/y) for a second month.
Export prices increased 0.2% (-1.1% y/y) following an unrevised 0.3% gain. No change had been expected.
A 0.4% increase (-3.0% y/y) in agricultural commodity prices led the increase in the overall index, as it followed three straight months of decline. Nonagricultural goods costs rose 0.2% (-0.8% y/y) following a 0.4% increase. Foods, feeds & beverage prices increased 0.3% (-2.8% y/y), also following three straight months of decline. Industrial supplies & materials costs rose 0.8% (-1.0% y/y) after a 1.3% increase. Motor vehicle & parts prices increased 0.2% (-0.7% y/y) while nonauto consumer goods prices fell 0.7% (-1.9% y/y) after a 0.2% rise. Capital goods prices eased 0.1% (-0.4% y/y), and have been little changed this year.
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports - All Commodities | 0.5 | 0.2 | -0.2 | -0.2 | -10.2 | -1.1 | -1.1 |
| Petroleum | 7.5 | 1.6 | -4.1 | 4.5 | -46.0 | -5.6 | -2.6 |
| Nonpetroleum | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | -0.4 | -2.8 | 0.1 | -0.6 |
| Exports - All Commodities | 0.2 | 0.3 | -0.8 | -1.1 | -6.3 | -0.5 | -0.4 |
| Agricultural | 0.4 | -1.1 | -3.5 | -3.0 | -13.3 | -2.7 | 1.6 |
| Nonagricultural | 0.2 | 0.4 | -0.5 | -0.8 | -5.5 | -0.3 | -0.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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