Global| Oct 13 2016U.S. Import Price Increase Led by Oil; Export Prices Rise
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Import prices notched 0.1% higher (-1.1% y/y) during September following an unrevised 0.2% August decline. The increase matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These figures are not seasonally adjusted. A 1.2% [...]
Import prices notched 0.1% higher (-1.1% y/y) during September following an unrevised 0.2% August decline. The increase matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These figures are not seasonally adjusted.
A 1.2% increase in petroleum import prices (-2.4% y/y) led the rise in the overall price index, as it followed a 3.0% decline. Nonpetroleum import prices remained unchanged (-0.8% y/y) for the second straight month. Prices for non-oil industrial supplies & materials declined 0.6% (-1.0% y/y), and reversed the prior month's rise. Foods, feeds & beverage costs gained 0.6% (1.3% y/y) after a 0.9% drop. Motor vehicle & parts prices improved 0.2% (-0.5% y/y) following two months of decline. Nonauto consumer goods prices remained unchanged (-0.5% y/y) after falling for three months. Capital goods prices improved 0.1% (-1.5% y/y), the first increase since June 2014. Capital goods prices excluding computers, peripherals & semiconductors also increased 0.1% (-1.2% y/y) for a second month.
Export prices increased 0.3% (-1.5% y/y) following an unrevised 0.8% decline. A 0.1% dip had been expected.
A 0.4% increase (-1.4% y/y) in nonagricultural commodity prices led the rise in the overall index, as it followed a 0.6% decline. Agricultural goods costs fell 1.0% (-3.2% y/y), down for the third straight month. Foods, feeds & beverage prices declined 0.9% (-2.6% y/y) following a 3.7% fall. Industrial supplies & materials costs rebounded 1.2% (-2.7% y/y), and recovered the August drop. Nonauto consumer goods prices improved 0.2% (-1.3% y/y) after a 0.2% decline. Capital goods prices remained unchanged (-0.6% y/y) following two months of decline. Motor vehicle & parts prices improved 0.1% (-1.1% y/y) after a 0.6% drop.
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports - All Commodities | 0.1 | -0.2 | 0.1 | -1.1 | -10.2 | -1.1 | -1.1 |
| Petroleum | 1.2 | -3.0 | -3.1 | -2.4 | -46.0 | -5.6 | -2.6 |
| Nonpetroleum | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.5 | -0.8 | -2.8 | 0.1 | -0.6 |
| Exports - All Commodities | 0.3 | -0.8 | 0.2 | -1.5 | -6.3 | -0.5 | -0.4 |
| Agricultural | -1.0 | -3.5 | -0.3 | -3.2 | -13.3 | -2.7 | 1.6 |
| Nonagricultural | 0.4 | -0.6 | 0.3 | -1.4 | -5.5 | -0.3 | -0.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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