Global| Aug 12 2010U.S. Import Price Gain Is Modest
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
With a 0.2% July increase, U.S. import prices recovered just a piece of the prior two months' sharp decline. Moreover, the y/y gain fell to its least since November while May's 0.8% m/m drop was deepened from 0.5%. July's increase was [...]
With a 0.2% July increase, U.S. import prices recovered just a piece of the
prior two months' sharp decline. Moreover, the y/y gain fell to its least since
November while May's 0.8% m/m drop was deepened from 0.5%. July's increase was
less than Consensus expectations for a 0.4% gain. Petroleum prices gained 2.0%
(14.4% y/y) while excluding petroleum import prices fell by 0.2% after a
deepened 0.7% June decline.
Despite July's increase, energy prices are roughly unchanged from December after last year's 78.6% increase from December-to-December. Last week, Brent crude oil prices of $81.26 per barrel compared to $76.10 in July. Non-oil import prices fell 0.2% in July, down for the second straight month and prices are up just 0.7% since year-end. (The y/y change in non-oil import prices during the last ten years has had a negative 81% correlation with the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies.)
Food & beverage prices ticked 0.4% higher (8.0% y/y) and that compares to a 2.8% decline during 2009. Also, the 0.2% decline (+0.1% y/y) in prices for nonauto consumer goods compared to a 0.3% decline for all of last year. Appliance prices fell 0.6% y/y after last year's modest increase. Furniture prices fell 3.3% while apparel prices were unchanged. Imported auto prices fell 0.6% y/y after a 0.1% dip last year and capital goods slipped 0.5%. Excluding computers, capital goods prices rose 0.3% y/y following a 0.7% gain last year.
Total export prices slipped 0.2% last month after a 0.7% June decline. The decline reflected a 0.2% dip (+4.1% y/y) in non-agricultural export prices and a 0.1% slip in agricultural goods prices (+2.4% y/y).
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | July | June | May | July Y/Y | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import - All Commodities | 0.2 | -1.3 | -0.8 | 4.9 | -11.5 | 11.5 | 4.2 |
| Petroleum | 2.0 | -5.2 | -5.3 | 14.4 | -35.9 | 37.7 | 11.6 |
| Nonpetroleum | -0.2 | -0.5 | 0.5 | 3.1 | -4.1 | 5.3 | 2.7 |
| Export - All Commodities | -0.2 | -0.7 | 0.5 | 3.9 | -4.6 | 6.0 | 4.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
