Global| May 10 2012U.S. Import Price Decline Fueled By Oil Price Drop
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
U.S. import prices fell 0.5% during April after a 1.5% March rise, initially pegged as 1.3%. A 0.2% dip had been expected. The year-to-year increase in import prices decelerated to 0.5%, as oil prices declined. Petroleum prices fell [...]
U.S. import prices fell 0.5% during April after a 1.5% March rise, initially pegged as 1.3%. A 0.2% dip had been expected. The year-to-year increase in import prices decelerated to 0.5%, as oil prices declined. Petroleum prices fell 1.8% last month after a 4.8% March gain. Brent crude oil fell to an average $120.37 per barrel from March's $125.13, and yesterday fell further to $112.43. Non-oil import prices were unchanged (0.7% y/y) following a 0.3% rise during March. The y/y change in non-oil import prices during the last twenty years has a 59% inverse correlation with the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies.
Imported food & beverage prices inched up 0.1% last month (-2.7% y/y) while prices for non-oil industrial supplies fell 0.4% (-2.2% y/y). Prices for non-auto consumer goods ticked up 0.1% (2.4% y/y). Furniture prices rose 0.1% (4.1% y/y) but home entertainment equipment prices fell 1.5% (-5.9% y/y). Imported auto prices rose 0.4% (2.1% y/y) and imported capital goods prices were unchanged (1.1% y/y). Computer & peripherals prices fell 0.5% (-2.1% y/y) while excluding computers, capital goods prices again rose 0.3% (2.4% y/y).
U.S. export prices increased 0.4% (0.7% y/y) as nonagricultural prices rose 0.2% (1.2% y/y) but agricultural goods prices jumped another 2.0% (-3.1% y/y). Prices of industrial supplies rose 0.4% (-1.4% y/y). Capital goods prices were unchanged (1.6% y/y) and nonauto consumer goods prices slipped 0.2% (+2.0% y/y). Prices for exported autos & parts rose 0.5% (2.9% y/y).
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The daily figure are in DAILY. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports - All Commodities | -0.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 10.9 | 6.9 | -11.5 |
| Petroleum | -1.8 | 4.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 36.5 | 28.4 | -35.9 |
| Nonpetroleum | 0.0 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 4.5 | 2.8 | -4.1 |
| Exports - All Commodities | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 8.1 | 4.9 | -4.6 |
| Agricultural | 2.0 | 2.5 | -0.4 | -3.1 | 22.3 | 7.9 | -12.8 |
| Nonagricultural | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 6.6 | 4.6 | -3.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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