Global| Apr 14 2020U.S. Import and Export Prices Continue to Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Lower oil prices drag costs lower. • Prices for other goods weaken. Import prices weakened 2.3% (-4.1% y/y) during March after falling 0.7% in February, revised from -0.5%. A 3.0% decline had been expected in the Action Economics [...]
• Lower oil prices drag costs lower.
• Prices for other goods weaken.
Import prices weakened 2.3% (-4.1% y/y) during March after falling 0.7% in February, revised from -0.5%. A 3.0% decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These figures are not seasonally adjusted and do not include import duties.
A 27.4% decline (-36.0% y/y) in petroleum & petroleum product prices accounted for virtually all of the total's drop. It followed an 8.8% fall during February. Nonpetroleum import prices eased 0.1% (-0.9% y/y) after a 0.2% rise.
Lower prices for foods, feeds & beverages weakened the import price total with a 1.0% decline (+0.1% y/y). Prices of industrial materials excluding petroleum eased 0.2% (-2.4% y/y). Capital goods prices rose 0.1% (-1.2% y/y) for a fourth straight month as computer, peripheral & semiconductor costs increased 0.6% (-5.4% y/y). Capital goods prices excluding these technology products held steady (0.4% y/y). Auto, parts & engine prices improved 0.4% (0.5% y/y) as nonauto consumer goods prices declined 0.3% (-0.6% y/y) following two months of stability.
Export prices declined 1.6% last month (-3.6% y/y) after weakening 1.1% in February. A 1.9% fall had been expected.
The decline reflected a 1.4% drop (-2.2% y/y) in agricultural product prices. Nonagricultural product prices also weakened by 1.5% (-3.7% y/y). Prices for foods, feeds & beverages dropped 1.5% (-1.8% y/y) Industrial materials prices weakened 4.5% (-11.2% y/y) as petroleum product costs fell 14.6% (-29.8% y/y). Capital goods prices improved 0.2% (0.8% y/y) as computer, peripheral & semiconductor prices gained 0.8% (-2.6% y/y). Excluding these products, the cost of capital goods improved 0.1% (1.6% y/y). Auto & auto product export prices gained 0.1% (-0.3% y/y) for a second month while nonauto consumer goods prices declined 0.6% (-0.2% y/y).
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports - All Commodities | -2.3 | -0.7 | 0.2 | -4.1 | -1.3 | 3.1 | 2.9 |
| Petroleum & Petroleum Products | -27.4 | -8.8 | 0.3 | -36.0 | -2.6 | 22.0 | 25.6 |
| Nonpetroleum | -0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | -0.9 | -1.1 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Exports - All Commodities | -1.6 | -1.1 | 0.6 | -3.6 | -0.9 | 3.4 | 2.4 |
| Agricultural | -1.4 | -2.7 | 2.2 | -2.2 | -0.4 | 0.6 | 1.5 |
| Nonagricultural | -1.5 | -1.1 | 0.6 | -3.7 | -0.9 | 3.7 | 2.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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