Global| Aug 13 2015U.S. Import and Export Price Declines Are Broad-Based
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Import prices moved 0.9% lower during July (-10.4% y/y) following no change during June, revised from -0.1%. The Action Economics Forecast Survey anticipated a 1.0% July decline. Prices of petroleum imports fell 5.9% (-43.4% y/y) [...]
Import prices moved 0.9% lower during July (-10.4% y/y) following no change during June, revised from -0.1%. The Action Economics Forecast Survey anticipated a 1.0% July decline.
Prices of petroleum imports fell 5.9% (-43.4% y/y) following a 1.6% rise. Nonpetroleum import prices were off 0.3% (-2.8% y/y). They've been flat or down in each month since March of last year. Industrial materials prices excluding petroleum declined 0.9% (-9.3% y/y), down regularly during the last year. Prices amongst the other end-use categories were mixed. Food, feed & beverage prices remained unchanged (-1.7% y/y) as did autos & parts prices (-1.4% y/y). Nonauto consumer goods prices declined 0.3% (-1.1% y/y) while capital goods prices eased 0.2% (-2.1% y/y).
Export prices slipped 0.2% (-6.1% y/y) following a 0.3% decline. A 0.3% drop had been expected. Agricultural prices rebounded 0.8% (-14.6% y/y) but nonagricultural costs eased 0.4% (-5.1% y/y). Overall industrial materials & supplies prices fell 1.2% (-13.5% y/y), reflecting a 1.2% decline (-31.1% y/y) in petroleum prices. Foods, feeds & beverage prices improved 1.8% (-14.4% y/y). Prices excluding foods and fuels continued lower by 0.4% (-2.3% y/y). Capital goods export prices dipped 0.1% (+0.2% y/y) while prices excluding computers & peripherals remained unchanged (0.9% y/y). Nonauto consumer goods prices eased 0.2% (-2.4% y/y) as did autos & parts prices (-0.4% y/y).
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures, including the industrial materials excluding petroleum imports and the fuel & lubricant export items mentioned above, are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
Is China's Growth Miracle Over? from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | Jul | Jun | May | Jul Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports - All Commodities | -0.9 | 0.0 | 1.2 | -10.4 | -1.1 | -1.1 | 0.3 |
| Petroleum | -5.9 | 1.6 | 11.7 | -43.4 | -5.6 | -2.6 | -0.3 |
| Nonpetroleum | -0.3 | -0.2 | 0.0 | -2.8 | 0.1 | -0.6 | 0.3 |
| Exports - All Commodities | -0.2 | -0.3 | 0.5 | -6.1 | -0.5 | -0.4 | 0.4 |
| Agricultural | 0.8 | -1.6 | -1.3 | -14.6 | -2.7 | 1.6 | 2.4 |
| Nonagricultural | -0.4 | -0.2 | 0.7 | -5.1 | -0.3 | -0.7 | 0.1 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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