Global| Jul 18 2018U.S. Housing Starts Weaken Unexpectedly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total housing starts declined 12.3% (-4.2% y/y) during June to 1.173 million (AR) from 1.337 million in May, revised from 1.350 million. It was the lowest level of starts in nine months. A rise to 1.320 million starts had been [...]
Total housing starts declined 12.3% (-4.2% y/y) during June to 1.173 million (AR) from 1.337 million in May, revised from 1.350 million. It was the lowest level of starts in nine months. A rise to 1.320 million starts had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Starts of single-family homes weakened 9.1% (-0.2% y/y) last month to 858,000 units, following a 5.1% May rise to 944,000. Starts of multi-family units slackened 19.8% (-13.7% y/y) to 315,000 units after a 4.0% rise to 393,000 in May.
The decline in starts last month was paced by a roughly one-third shortfall in the Midwest to 156,000 after a one-half increase during May. Elsewhere around the country housing starts also fell, but to a lesser extent. Housing starts in the South were off 9.1% (+13.4% y/y) to 601,000, the lowest level since December. Starts in the Northeast fell 6.8% (-40.0% y/y) to 96,000. Starts in the West eased 3.0% (-3.3% y/y) to 320,000 after a 6.0% decline.
Building permits declined 2.2% (-3.0% y/y) to 1.273 million units following a 4.6% May fall. Single-family permits improved 0.8% (4.6% y/y) to 850,000 after a 2.3% decline. Permits to build multi-family homes were off 7.6% (-15.2% y/y) to 423,000, the third consecutive monthly decline.
The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
The Fed's latest Beige Book covering regional economic conditions can be found here.
| Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1,173 | 1,337 | 1,276 | -4.2 | 1,208 | 1,177 | 1,107 |
| Single-Family | 858 | 944 | 898 | -0.2 | 852 | 785 | 713 |
| Multi-Family | 315 | 393 | 378 | -13.7 | 354 | 392 | 397 |
| Starts By Region | |||||||
| Northeast | 96 | 103 | 96 | -40.0 | 111 | 116 | 135 |
| Midwest | 156 | 243 | 160 | -23.5 | 180 | 185 | 150 |
| South | 601 | 661 | 669 | 13.4 | 603 | 585 | 557 |
| West | 320 | 330 | 351 | -3.3 | 314 | 292 | 265 |
| Building Permits | 1,273 | 1,301 | 1,364 | -3.0 | 1,286 | 1,206 | 1,178 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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