Global| Nov 20 2007U.S. Housing Starts Total Up Unexpectedly; Single Family & Permits Down
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Overall, good weather helped housing starts to post a surprising 3.0% m/m gain in October to 1.229M units. Consensus expectations had been for little change at 1.20M starts and the prior month's level was little revised. The surprise [...]
Overall, good weather helped housing starts to post a surprising 3.0% m/m gain in October to 1.229M units. Consensus expectations had been for little change at 1.20M starts and the prior month's level was little revised.
The surprise was that starts of multi-family structures recovered virtually all the prior month's plunge with a 44.4% rebound. It was from the lowest level since 1994.
Single-family starts continued downward for the seventh consecutive month with a 7.3% m/m decline. At 884M units single family starts fell to their lowest since 1991, off by more than one-half from the peak early last year.
By region, single family starts in the South suffered the worst m/m drop in a year with a 19.5% fall, down 56% from the 2006 peak. In the West single family starts fell 8.1% m/m but starts are off nearly two-thirds from the 2005 peak level. In the Midwest starts rose 15.% to finish 48% below the 2006 peak and single family starts in the Northeast rose for the second consecutive month with a 29.5% rise, but they're still 42% below the recent peak.
Continuing with downward momentum, building permits fell 6.6% (-24.5% y/y) for the fifth straight m/m decline. Single-family permits fell 8.0% (-31.0% y/y) and multi-family permits fell as well.
Asset Price Bubbles from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.
| Housing Starts (000s, AR) | Oct | Sept | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1,229 | 1,193 | -16.4% | 1,812 | 2,073 | 1,950 |
| Single-Family | 884 | 954 | -25.1% | 1,474 | 1,719 | 1,604 |
| Multi-Family | 345 | 239 | 9.4% | 338 | 354 | 345 |
| Building Permits | 1,178 | 1,261 | -24.5% | 1,842 | 2,159 | 2,058 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
