Global| Jan 17 2020U.S. Housing Starts Surge to 13-Year High
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Fueled by low interest rates and a strong job market, new home building strengthened during December. Housing starts jumped 16.9% (40.8% y/y) to 1.608 million (AR) from November's 1.375 million, revised from 1.365 million. It was the [...]
Fueled by low interest rates and a strong job market, new home building strengthened during December. Housing starts jumped 16.9% (40.8% y/y) to 1.608 million (AR) from November's 1.375 million, revised from 1.365 million. It was the highest level of starts since December 2006. A level of 1.39 million had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
The rise in starts last month was powered by a 29.8% surge (68.6% y/y) in multi-family starts to 553,000, the highest level since December 1986. Single-family starts also were strong and posted an 11.2% increase (29.6% y/y) to 1.055 million, the highest level since June 2007.
Building permits declined 3.9% (+5.8% y/y) 1.416 million. Permits to build single-family homes eased 0.5% (+10.8% y/y) to 916,000 while multi-family permits declined 9.6% (-2.3% y/y) to 500,000.
By region, housing starts rose by roughly one-third (85.4% y/y) to 254,000 in the Midwest. Starts also were strong in the Northeast where they posted a one-quarter increase (18.8% y/y) to 133,000. In the West, housing starts rose 19.8% (72.7% y/y) to 411,000 and in the South, housing starts rose 9.3% (23.7% y/y) to 810,000.
The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
The Outlook for Housing from Fed Governor Michelle W. Bowman can be found here.
| Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Dec Y/Y % | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1,608 | 1,375 | 1,340 | 40.8 | 1,298 | 1,250 | 1,209 |
| Single-Family | 1,055 | 949 | 914 | 29.6 | 894 | 873 | 852 |
| Multi-Family | 553 | 426 | 426 | 68.6 | 404 | 377 | 357 |
| Starts By Region | |||||||
| Northeast | 133 | 106 | 115 | 18.8 | 115 | 111 | 111 |
| Midwest | 254 | 185 | 179 | 85.4 | 173 | 171 | 181 |
| South | 810 | 741 | 692 | 23.7 | 689 | 631 | 603 |
| West | 411 | 343 | 354 | 72.7 | 321 | 337 | 314 |
| Building Permits | 1,416 | 1,474 | 1,461 | 5.8 | 1,350 | 1,330 | 1,286 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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