Global| Jul 17 2015U.S. Housing Starts Strength Reflects Strong Multi-Family Building
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Housing starts during June increased 9.8% (26.5% y/y) to 1.174 million (AR) from 1.069 million in May, last month reported as 1.036 million. June's figure exceeded expectations for 1.108 million starts in the Action Economics Forecast [...]
Housing starts during June increased 9.8% (26.5% y/y) to 1.174 million (AR) from 1.069 million in May, last month reported as 1.036 million. June's figure exceeded expectations for 1.108 million starts in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Multi-family housing starts jumped 29.4% (55.3% y/y) and more than reversed May's decline. The latest level was the highest since April 1988. Single-family starts eased 0.9% (+14.0% y/y) to 685,000, down 6.8% from the April high.
Housing starts were mixed m/m throughout the country. Activity in the Northeast recovered by roughly one-third m/m (55.4% y/y) to 206,000, the highest level since June 2008. The strength represented a tripling y/y of multi-family starts. In the South, new building gained 13.5% to 571,000 (45.7% y/y), reflecting a one-third m/m rise in multi-family. In the Midwest, starts eased 0.7% m/m and were down roughly one-quarter y/y. Starts in the West declined 6.0% (+9.1% y/y) to 252,000; but multi-family starts here have increased nearly three times from the recession low.
Permits to build housing units increased 7.4% to 1.343 million units (40.9% y/y). It followed two months of similarly strong increase to the highest level since July 2007, driven by a surge in the Northeast. Multi-family permits nearly doubled versus last year while single-family permits gained 11.4% y/y.
The housing starts figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
| Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1,174 | 1,069 | 1,190 | 26.5 | 1,001 | 928 | 784 |
| Single-Family | 685 | 691 | 735 | 14.0 | 647 | 620 | 537 |
| Multi-Family | 489 | 378 | 455 | 55.3 | 354 | 308 | 247 |
| Starts By Region | |||||||
| Northeast | 206 | 152 | 193 | 102.2 | 110 | 97 | 80 |
| Midwest | 145 | 146 | 167 | -25.6 | 159 | 149 | 129 |
| South | 571 | 503 | 525 | 45.7 | 497 | 467 | 400 |
| West | 252 | 268 | 305 | 9.1 | 236 | 217 | 175 |
| Building Permits | 1,343 | 1,250 | 1,140 | 40.9 | 1,052 | 987 | 829 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
