Global| Jan 19 2012U.S. Housing Starts Slip M/M But Rise Y/Y
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Full-year 2011 was moderately improved for new home building, but was not great. In December only, the level of housing starts overall fell to 657,000 (AR) from an unrevised 685,000 in November. The latest fell short of expectations [...]
Full-year 2011 was moderately improved for new home building, but was not great. In December only, the level of housing starts overall fell to 657,000 (AR) from an unrevised 685,000 in November. The latest fell short of expectations for 676,000 units. For the full year, starts of 607,000 were up 3.7% from 2010 and were the highest since 2008.
Starts of single-family homes rose to the best level since April, 2007. For the full-year, however, starts of one-family homes fell 8.8% and more-than reversed the 2010 increase. Starts of multi-family homes were last year's bright spot. Though they fell in December to 187,000 units, the rise for the year to 177,000 units was to the highest level since 2008.
Building permits were roughly unchanged last month at 679,000 (7.8% y/y). Permits remained the highest since October 2008. Single-family starts rose 1.8% but slipped 0.2% Dec/Dec. They were down 8.1% for the full-year. Multi-family permits fell 3.7% m/m but were up by one-quarter y/y.
The housing starts figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Increased Real House Price Volatility Signals Break from Great Moderation from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is available here.
| Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Y/Y % | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 657 | 685 | 628 | 24.9 | 607 | 585 | 554 |
| Single-Family | 470 | 450 | 437 | 11.6 | 429 | 471 | 442 |
| Multi-Family | 187 | 235 | 191 | 78.1 | 177 | 114 | 112 |
| Starts By Region | |||||||
| Northeast | 57 | 97 | 64 | -1.7 | 68 | 72 | 61 |
| Midwest | 144 | 93 | 110 | 121.5 | 100 | 97 | 95 |
| South | 320 | 330 | 322 | 19.0 | 307 | 296 | 281 |
| West | 136 | 165 | 132 | 1.5 | 132 | 120 | 117 |
| Building Permits | 679 | 680 | 644 | 7.8 | 607 | 603 | 582 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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