Global| Feb 20 2008U.S. Housing Starts Remain Near 1991 Lows
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Housing starts last month did rise slightly as expected to 1.012M units, up 0.8% from December. But the gain did little to dent m/m declines of 14.8% in December and 7.5% during November. As a result housing starts remained near the [...]
Housing starts last month did rise slightly as expected to 1.012M units, up 0.8% from December. But the gain did little to dent m/m declines of 14.8% in December and 7.5% during November. As a result housing starts remained near the lows of 1991.
Last month, all of the increase in the total was due to a 22.3% gain in starts of condos & coops.
Single family starts in January fell 5.2% after like declines during each of the prior six months. The decline to .743M was to the lowest level since January 1991. Since the peak in early 2006, starts of single family homes are down 59.6%.
By region, single family starts in the Northeast rose by nearly one half m/m to the highest level since last June. That rise was countered by a 20.3% (-49.1% y/y) decline in the West. Single family starts in the Midwest were stable m/m (-31.1% y/y) and in the South, single family starts fell 9.8% (-32.3% y/y).
Building permits fell 3.0% (-35.1% y/y). Single-family permits fell 4.1% (-40.3% y/y).
Liquidity, Monetary Policy, and Financial Cycles from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
| Housing Starts (000s, AR) | January | December | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1,012 | 1,004 | -27.9% | 1,344 | 1,812 | 2,073 |
| Single-Family | 743 | 784 | -33.8% | 1,039 | 1,474 | 1,719 |
| Multi-Family | 269 | 220 | -3.9% | 304 | 338 | 354 |
| Building Permits | 1,048 | 1,080 | -33.1% | 1,371 | 1,842 | 2,159 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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