Global| Jul 17 2008U.S. Housing Starts Rebound All Multi-Family
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Housing starts rebounded smartly last month. The 9.1% m/m rise to 1.066M units by far exceeded Consensus expectations for .960M starts. The rise was, however, due solely to the multi-family sector. Multi-family starts surged 42.1% [...]
Housing starts rebounded smartly last month. The 9.1% m/m rise to 1.066M units by far exceeded Consensus expectations for .960M starts. The rise was, however, due solely to the multi-family sector.
Multi-family starts surged 42.1% last month to the highest level since January of 2006. In part, the rise was making up for sharp declines during two of the prior three months. By region, the pop in multi-family units was all in the Northeast. Elsewhere, they fell. 
Single-family starts continued to slide. They fell 5.3% to 647,000 from a May level which was revised up slightly. The latest level was the lowest since January 1991. For 2Q as a whole, single family starts fell 7.9% from 1Q after that quarter's 11.9% decline.
Single-family housing starts in the Northeast reversed all of a May increase with a 9.2% (-44.9% y/y) decline. Starts in the West also continued lower with a 5.8% drop to the lowest level since January. In the Midwest, starts held at the lows of the year and fell 5.3% (-45.7% y/y) after an 8.7% May gain. Finally, single-family starts in the South reversed the May increase and fell 4.4% (-36.9% y/y), but they were at a new low for this cycle and the lowest since 1991.
Building permits recovered 11.6% but, here again, the rise was due solely to a 39.4% rise in multi-family. Permits to build single-family units fell 3.5% to the lowest level since 1991.
| Housing Starts (000s, AR) | June | May | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1,066 | 977 | -26.9% | 1,344 | 1,812 | 2,073 |
| Single-Family | 647 | 683 | -43.0% | 1,039 | 1,474 | 1,719 |
| Multi-Family | 419 | 294 | 30.1% | 304 | 338 | 354 |
| Building Permits | 1,091 | 978 | -23.9% | 1,371 | 1,842 | 2,159 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
