Global| Oct 19 2010U.S. Housing Starts Nudge Higher To Five-Month High; Permits Weaken
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
There's certainly no strength in the housing sector, but the latest several months' data at least show stability. Housing starts last month ticked up 0.3% to 610,000 (AR) from an upwardly revised August level. The latest was the [...]
There's certainly no strength in the housing sector, but the latest several months' data at least show stability. Housing starts last month ticked up 0.3% to 610,000 (AR) from an upwardly revised August level. The latest was the highest since April and was 27.9% above the recession low. Nevertheless, starts still were down roughly three-quarters from the peak in early-2006. The latest figure was higher than Consensus expectations for 583,000 starts.
Last month's gain was due to a 4.4% increase in starts of single-family homes to 452,000. Starts of multi-unit units fell 9.7% but they nevertheless were double the year ago level. Starts of 2-to-4 unit structures slipped 12.5% y/y but starts with more than five units more- than-doubled. Higher starts in the South and in the Northeast led last month's increase but starts fell elsewhere. In just the single-family area, starts in the Northeast rose by two-thirds to the highest level since late-2008. Single-family starts elsewhere in the country continued to trend sideways.
Working the other way, building permits fell 5.6% m/m to the lowest level since April of last year. The decline was led by lower multi-family authorizations to the lowest level since April of this year. Single-family permits ticked up 0.5% (-14.4% y/y) following five consecutive months of decline.
The housing starts figures can be found in Haver's USECON database.
| Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | September | August | July | September Y/Y % |
2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 610 | 608 | 550 | 4.1 | 554 | 900 | 1,342 |
| Single-Family | 452 | 433 | 427 | -10.8 | 442 | 616 | 1,036 |
| Multi-Family | 158 | 175 | 123 | 100.0 | 112 | 284 | 306 |
| Starts By Region | |||||||
| Northeast | 72 | 70 | 75 | 7.5 | 61 | 120 | 143 |
| Midwest | 101 | 110 | 92 | -3.8 | 95 | 134 | 206 |
| South | 305 | 291 | 275 | 2.7 | 281 | 451 | 676 |
| West | 132 | 137 | 108 | 12.8 | 117 | 195 | 317 |
| Building Permits | 539 | 571 | 559 | 10.9 | 583 | 896 | 1,392 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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