Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
Global| Jan 20 2016

U.S. Housing Starts Increase to Eight-Year High in 2015

Summary

During all of last year, housing starts increased 10.8% to 1.107 million units. The level was the highest since 2007 and double the 2009 low. During December, starts eased 2.5% to 1.149 million (AR) from 1.179 million, revised from [...]


During all of last year, housing starts increased 10.8% to 1.107 million units. The level was the highest since 2007 and double the 2009 low. During December, starts eased 2.5% to 1.149 million (AR) from 1.179 million, revised from 1.173 million. The latest figure disappointed expectations for 1.21 million starts in the Action Economic Forecast Survey.

Starts of single-family homes jumped 10.4% last year to 715,000 after a 4.9% gain in 2014. For December alone, starts declined 3.3% to 768,000, up 5.0% y/y. Starts in the West declined 6.2% (+12.5% y/y) last month and in the Midwest starts fell 4.6% (-20.8% y/y). Single-family starts were off 4.4% (+27.8% y/y) in the Northeast. Single-family starts in the Midwest declined 1.4% (+6.3% y/y).

Multi-family housing starts during all of last year improved 11.4% to 396,000 following stronger gains during the prior four years. In December alone, multi-family starts eased 1.0% to 381,000 (+6.7% y/y). The drop reflected a 26.2% decline (+10.3% y/y) in the Midwest and a 7.9% drop (+38.1% y/y) in the South. In the West, starts fell 10.8% (-45.8% y/y) but in the Northeast, multi-family starts rose by nearly two-thirds (56.8% y/y).

Building permits increased 11.5% last year. For December alone, however, they backpedaled 3.9% (+17.4% y/y). Permits to build single-family homes rose 1.8% last month (8.2% y/y) but for multi-family units they declined 3.9% (+17.4% y/y).

The housing starts figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.

Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) Dec Nov Oct Dec Y/Y % 2015 2014 2013
Total 1,149 1,179 1,071 5.6 1,107 1,001 928
 Single-Family 768 794 715 5.0 715 648 618
 Multi-Family 381 385 356 6.7 396 356 307
Starts By Region
 Northeast 163 131 136 43.8 139 110 97
 Midwest 148 169 173 -11.9 152 163 150
 South 583 603 514 13.9 554 496 464
 West 255 276 248 -15.5 266 235 215
Building Permits 1,232 1,282 1,161 17.4 1,173 1,052 991
  • Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

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