Global| Dec 18 2007U.S. Housing Starts Down As Expected in November
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
November housing starts fell 3.7% from October to 1.187M units. Starts in October were revised up slightly due to more starts of multi-family units. Last month's figure matched Consensus expectations for 1.18M starts. Single-family [...]
November housing starts fell 3.7% from October to 1.187M units. Starts in October were revised up slightly due to more starts of multi-family units. Last month's figure matched Consensus expectations for 1.18M starts.
Single-family starts fell last month by another 5.4% m/m to 829,000 units (AR), the lowest level since 1991 and down 55% from the peak during January 2006.
Multi-family starts were roughly unchanged after the 45.9% m/m spike in October.
By region, single family starts in the Northeast retraced nearly all of the recovery during October with a 20.0% (-29.2% y/y) decline. Single family starts in the Midwest also were quite weak and fell 20.8% (-28.6% y/y). Single family starts in the West fell a more moderate 6.8% m/m yet remained down 63.9% from the 2005 peak. In the South starts reversed a third of the October decline with a 5.4% m/m increase (-36.1% y/y).
Building permits fell 1.5% (-24.6% y/y) and were off by nearly one half from the 2005 peak. Single-family permits fell as well by 5.6% (-33.7% y/y) and were off an even greater 57.5% from the peak.
Housing Woes Weigh Heavily on the Economy from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
| Housing Starts (000s, AR) | November | October | Y/Y | 2006 | 2005 | 2004 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1,187 | 1,232 | -24.2% | 1,812 | 2,073 | 1,950 |
| Single-Family | 829 | 876 | -34.9% | 1,474 | 1,719 | 1,604 |
| Multi-Family | 358 | 356 | 22.6% | 338 | 354 | 345 |
| Building Permits | 1,152 | 1,170 | -24.6% | 1,842 | 2,159 | 2,058 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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