Global| Nov 18 2015U.S. Housing Starts Decline Sharply; Building Permits Rise
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Housing starts during October declined 11.0% to 1.060 million (AR) from 1.191 million in September, last month reported as 1.206 million. Starts were at their lowest level since March and 2.0% lower than one year earlier. The latest [...]
Housing starts during October declined 11.0% to 1.060 million (AR) from 1.191 million in September, last month reported as 1.206 million. Starts were at their lowest level since March and 2.0% lower than one year earlier. The latest figure missed expectations for 1.16 million starts in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Last month's fall in starts was led by a 25.1% decline (-10.4% y/y) in multi-family to 338,000, the lowest level since February. The falloff was paced by roughly 40.0% declines in the South and the West, offsetting gains in the Northeast and Midwest.
Single-family starts fell 2.4% to 722,000 (+2.9% y/y), the lowest level since June. The decline reflected a 6.9% drop in the South to 375,000 (-5.4% y/y). In all other sections of the country single-family starts rose m/m. In the Northeast, single-family starts increased 7.0% to 61,000 (14.0% y/y) and in the Midwest they rose 2.7% to 114,000 (15.5% y/y). Single-family starts nudged 1.8% higher (10.0% y/y) in the West to 172,000.
Building permits during October increased 4.1% to 1,150,000 (-1.3% y/y) and recovered most of September's decline. Permits to build multi-family homes increased 6.8% (-8.4% y/y) while single-family permits gained 2.4% (3.9% y/y).
The housing starts figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
The minutes to the latest FOMC meeting can be found here.
| Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct Y/Y % | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1,060 | 1,191 | 1,116 | -2.0 | 1,001 | 928 | 784 |
| Single-Family | 722 | 740 | 734 | 2.9 | 647 | 620 | 537 |
| Multi-Family | 338 | 451 | 382 | -10.4 | 354 | 308 | 247 |
| Starts By Region | |||||||
| Northeast | 140 | 127 | 110 | 41.1 | 110 | 97 | 80 |
| Midwest | 161 | 140 | 146 | 1.3 | 159 | 149 | 129 |
| South | 506 | 622 | 615 | -16.9 | 497 | 467 | 400 |
| West | 253 | 302 | 245 | 15.9 | 236 | 217 | 175 |
| Building Permits | 1,150 | 1,105 | 1,161 | -1.3 | 1,052 | 987 | 829 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
