Global| Sep 17 2020U.S. Housing Starts Decline in August as Multi-Family Weakens
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• New home building declined m/m but remained higher y/y. • Building permits eased. Housing starts declined 5.1% (+2.8% y/y) during August to 1.416 million (SAAR) from 1.492 million during July, revised from 1.496 million. The decline [...]
• New home building declined m/m but remained higher y/y.
• Building permits eased.
Housing starts declined 5.1% (+2.8% y/y) during August to 1.416 million (SAAR) from 1.492 million during July, revised from 1.496 million. The decline left starts 12.4% below their January peak of 1.617 million. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.484 million starts in August.
A 22.7% decline (-15.2% y/y) in starts of multi-family units to 395,000 accounted for the drop in starts overall last month. Starts of single-family homes rose 4.1% last month (12.1% y/y) to 1.021 million after surging 10.1% in July to 981,000, revised from 940,000. The latest level was a six-month high, up 50.4% from the April low.
Building permits slipped 0.9% in August (-0.1% y/y) to 1.470 million from 1.483 million in July, revised from 1.258 million. Permits to build single-family homes increased 6.0% (15.6% y/y) to 1.036 million after improving 16.3% in July and 12.6% in June. Permits to build multi-family homes decreased 14.2% (-24.5% y/y) to 434,000 after rising 21.1% in July.
By region, housing starts in the Northeast fell by one-third (-47.0% y/y) to 89,000, the lowest level in three months. In the South, starts declined 17.7% (-2.6% y/y) to 699,000 and reversed half of July's increase. To the upside, in the Midwest housing starts rose 28.4% (40.5% y/y) to 267,000, the highest level since July 2006. Starts in the West improved 19.5% (19.9% y/y) to 361,000, a six-month high.
The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
| Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | Aug | Jul | Jun | Aug Y/Y % | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1,416 | 1,492 | 1,265 | 2.8 | 1,295 | 1,248 | 1,207 |
| Single-Family | 1,021 | 981 | 891 | 12.1 | 893 | 872 | 851 |
| Multi-Family | 395 | 511 | 374 | -15.2 | 403 | 376 | 356 |
| Starts By Region | |||||||
| Northeast | 89 | 133 | 116 | -47.0 | 115 | 111 | 112 |
| Midwest | 267 | 208 | 210 | 40.5 | 170 | 170 | 180 |
| South | 699 | 849 | 646 | -2.6 | 689 | 630 | 602 |
| West | 361 | 302 | 293 | 19.9 | 322 | 337 | 314 |
| Building Permits | 1,470 | 1,483 | 1,258 | -0.1 | 1,386 | 1,329 | 1,285 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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