Global| Oct 19 2016U.S. Housing Starts Decline, but Building Permits Rise
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Housing starts fell 9.0% during September (-11.9% y/y) to 1.047 million units (AR) following a 5.6% August decline to 1.150 million, revised from 1.142 million. It was the lowest level of starts since March of last year. Expectations [...]
Housing starts fell 9.0% during September (-11.9% y/y) to 1.047 million units (AR) following a 5.6% August decline to 1.150 million, revised from 1.142 million. It was the lowest level of starts since March of last year. Expectations were for 1.18 million starts in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Last month's drop reflected a 38.0% plummet (-40.8% y/y) in starts of multi-family homes, which include apartments & condominiums, to 264,000, the lowest level since June 2013. Starts of single-family homes increased 8.1% (5.4% y/y) to 783,000, the highest level since February.
By region, starts were weak everywhere last month. In the Northeast, starts declined 36.0% (-31.5% y/y) to 87,000. Starts in the Midwest fell 14.1% (+6.6% y/y) to 146,000, the lowest level in 12 months. In the South, starts fell 5.3% (-15.6% y/y) to 532,000. Starts remained unchanged (-4.4% y/y) at 282,000 in the West.
Building permits increased 6.3% (8.5% y/y) to 1.225 million, the highest level since November. Permits to build single-family homes improved 0.4% (4.4% y/y) to 739,000, while permits to build multi-family homes increased 16.8% (15.4% y/y) to 486,000.
The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Home Price Expectations and Behavior: Evidence from a Randomized Information Experiment from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.
| Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y % | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1,047 | 1,150 | 1,218 | -11.9 | 1,107 | 1,001 | 928 |
| Single-Family | 783 | 724 | 769 | 5.4 | 713 | 648 | 618 |
| Multi-Family | 264 | 426 | 449 | -40.8 | 395 | 356 | 307 |
| Starts By Region | |||||||
| Northeast | 87 | 136 | 134 | -31.5 | 136 | 110 | 97 |
| Midwest | 146 | 170 | 157 | 6.6 | 151 | 163 | 150 |
| South | 532 | 562 | 635 | -15.6 | 555 | 496 | 464 |
| West | 282 | 282 | 292 | -4.4 | 265 | 235 | 215 |
| Building Permits | 1,225 | 1,152 | 1,144 | 8.5 | 1,164 | 1,052 | 991 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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