Global| Oct 17 2018U.S. Housing Starts Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total housing starts fell 5.3% during September to 1.201 million units (AR) from 1.268 million in August, revised from 1.282 million. The decline compared to an estimate of 1.228 million starts in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. [...]
Total housing starts fell 5.3% during September to 1.201 million units (AR) from 1.268 million in August, revised from 1.282 million. The decline compared to an estimate of 1.228 million starts in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Last month's shortfall reflected a 13.7% drop in the South to 567,000 units from 657,000, as Hurricane Florence made landfall. Nevertheless, starts remained 4.4% higher than twelve months earlier. In the Midwest, housing starts also were weak and posted a 14.0% decline to 160,000 units (-14.0% y/y) from 186,000. In the Northeast, housing starts improved 29.0% (18.8% y/y) to 120,000 units, the highest level in six months. Housing starts in the West increased 6.6% (7.9% y/y) to 354,000, also the highest level in six months.
Starts of single-family homes eased 0.9% (+4.8% y/y) last month to 871,000 units following a 2.1% rise to 879,000. Starts of multi-family units declined 15.2% (+0.9% y/y) to 330,000 and reversed most of their rise during August.
Building permits slipped 0.6% (-1.0% y/y) to 1.241 million, the lowest level since May 2017, from 1.249 million, revised from 1.229 million. Single-family permits increased 2.9% (2.4% y/y) to 851,000. Permits to build multi-family homes declined 7.6% (-7.8% y/y) to 390,000, the lowest level since March 2016.
The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
The minutes to the latest FOMC meeting can be found here.
| Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1,201 | 1,268 | 1,184 | 3.7 | 1,208 | 1,177 | 1,107 |
| Single-Family | 871 | 879 | 861 | 4.8 | 852 | 785 | 713 |
| Multi-Family | 330 | 389 | 323 | 0.9 | 356 | 393 | 394 |
| Starts By Region | |||||||
| Northeast | 120 | 93 | 103 | 18.8 | 111 | 116 | 135 |
| Midwest | 160 | 186 | 178 | -14.0 | 180 | 185 | 150 |
| South | 567 | 657 | 624 | 4.4 | 603 | 585 | 557 |
| West | 354 | 332 | 279 | 7.9 | 314 | 292 | 265 |
| Building Permits | 1,241 | 1,249 | 1,303 | -1.0 | 1,286 | 1,206 | 1,178 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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