Global| Mar 18 2008U.S. Housing Starts Buoyed Again By Multi-Family
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Housing starts during February were firmer than expected and fell just 0.6% to 1.065M units. A m/m decline to 0.96M had been the Consensus expectation. In addition, starts in January were revised higher to 1.065M from 1.012M reported [...]
Housing starts during February were firmer than expected and fell just 0.6% to 1.065M units. A m/m decline to 0.96M had been the Consensus expectation. In addition, starts in January were revised higher to 1.065M from 1.012M reported last month.
As occurred last month, however, all of the strength relative to expectations (and most of the revision) was due to the multi-family sector. Starts of condos & coops during February rose 14.4% and January starts were revised higher by nearly one half million units.
Single family starts last month fell 6.7% m/m to .707M after a 3.1% January decline. That decline was revised to show less of a decline. Single family starts in February were at their lowest level since January 1991 and since the peak in early 2006, starts of single family homes were down 61.5%.
By region, single family starts in the Northeast gave back all of the January increase with a 42.3% decline (-28.9% y/y). In the Midwest single family starts fell to the lowest level since (this is not a typo) early 1985 and were down 25.0% y/y. In the South, single family starts fell 7.0% (-42.5% y/y) and out West single family starts rose by nearly one-third m/m but still were down by nearly one-half from February 2007.
Building permits continued the slide from a 2005 peak with a 7.8% m/m drop. Single-family permits fell 6.2% (-41.9% y/y).
Understanding the Securitization of Subprime Mortgage Credit from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here.
| Housing Starts (000s, AR) | February | January | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1,065 | 1,071 | -28.4% | 1,344 | 1,812 | 2,073 |
| Single-Family | 707 | 758 | -40.5% | 1,039 | 1,474 | 1,719 |
| Multi-Family | 358 | 313 | 19.7% | 304 | 338 | 354 |
| Building Permits | 978 | 1,061 | -36.5% | 1,371 | 1,842 | 2,159 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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