Global| Nov 19 2019U.S. Housing Starts & Building Permits Strengthen
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The housing market remains on a firm footing. Housing starts increased 3.8% (8.5% y/y) during October to 1.314 million (SAAR) after easing to 1.266 million in September, revised from 1.256 million. The Action Economics Forecast Survey [...]
The housing market remains on a firm footing. Housing starts increased 3.8% (8.5% y/y) during October to 1.314 million (SAAR) after easing to 1.266 million in September, revised from 1.256 million. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.310 million starts for last month.
Multi-family starts improved 8.6% (9.2% y/y) to 378,000 following a 25.3% drop during September. Single-family starts increased 2.0% in October (8.2% y/y) to 936,000, the fifth consecutive monthly increase.
Starts improved in most regions of the country. Starts in the West rose 17.6% (6.8% y/y) to 361,000. It was the highest level since March 2018. In the Midwest, starts improved 8.7% (-6.4% y/y) to 175,000 and recovered roughly half of September's decline. Starts edged 0.7% higher (15.6% y/y) in the South to 689,000. Starts tumbled 21.9% (-1.1% y/y) in the Northeast to 89,000, the lowest level since May.
A 5.0% rise (14.1% y/y) in building permits to 1.461 million portends further improvement in new construction activity. It was the highest level since May 2007. Permits to build multi-family homes increased 8.2% (26.9% y/y) while single-family permits rose 3.2% (7.4% y/y).
The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
| Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct Y/Y % | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1,314 | 1,266 | 1,375 | 8.5 | 1,250 | 1,209 | 1,178 |
| Single-Family | 936 | 918 | 909 | 8.2 | 873 | 852 | 786 |
| Multi-Family | 378 | 348 | 466 | 9.2 | 377 | 357 | 392 |
| Starts By Region | |||||||
| Northeast | 89 | 114 | 167 | -1.1 | 111 | 111 | 116 |
| Midwest | 175 | 161 | 190 | -6.4 | 171 | 181 | 185 |
| South | 689 | 684 | 717 | 15.6 | 631 | 603 | 585 |
| West | 361 | 307 | 301 | 6.8 | 337 | 314 | 292 |
| Building Permits | 1,461 | 1,391 | 1,425 | 14.1 | 1,330 | 1,286 | 1,207 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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