Global| Jul 17 2019U.S. Housing Starts and Building Permits Weaken
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Housing starts eased 0.9% (+6.2% y/y) during June to 1.253 million (SAAR) from 1.265 million in May, revised from 1.269 million. Starts in April also were revised to 1.270 million from 1.199 million. The Action Economics Forecast [...]
Housing starts eased 0.9% (+6.2% y/y) during June to 1.253 million (SAAR) from 1.265 million in May, revised from 1.269 million. Starts in April also were revised to 1.270 million from 1.199 million. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.260 million starts during June.
Starts of single-family homes increased 3.5% (-0.8% y/y) to 847,000 units from 818,000 in May, revised from 820,000. Multi-family housing starts fell 9.2% last month (+24.5% y/y) from 447,000 in May, revised from 449,000.
The decline in housing starts last month continued to reflect mixed performance across the country. In the Northeast, starts surged by roughly one-third m/m (4.8% y/y) to 109,000 units, and reversed most of May's sharp decline. Starts in the Midwest surged by roughly one-quarter, both m/m and y/y, to 197,000, the highest level since May of last year. Offsetting these gains was a 4.9% decline (-9.6% y/y) in housing starts in the West to 312,000, after little-change in May. Starts in the South also weakened, falling 9.2% (+12.0% y/y) to 635,000, the lowest level since October of last year.
Building permits weakened 6.1% last month (-6.6% y/y) to 1.220 million, the lowest level since May 2017 and 13.2% below the high in March of last year. Permits to build a single-family home rose 0.4% (-4.7% y/y) to 813,000, but have been in a downtrend since early last year. Multi-family building permits fell 16.8% (-10.2% y/y) to 407,000, the lowest level since April 2016. Permits data back through 2013 were revised.
The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
| Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | Jun | May | Apr | Jun Y/Y % | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1,253 | 1,265 | 1,270 | 6.2 | 1,250 | 1,209 | 1,178 |
| Single-Family | 847 | 818 | 862 | -0.8 | 873 | 852 | 786 |
| Multi-Family | 406 | 447 | 408 | 24.5 | 377 | 357 | 392 |
| Starts By Region | |||||||
| Northeast | 109 | 83 | 132 | 4.8 | 111 | 111 | 116 |
| Midwest | 197 | 155 | 162 | 20.1 | 171 | 180 | 185 |
| South | 635 | 699 | 649 | 12.0 | 631 | 603 | 585 |
| West | 312 | 328 | 327 | -9.6 | 336 | 314 | 292 |
| Building Permits | 1,220 | 1,299 | 1,290 | -6.6 | 1,330 | 1,286 | 1,207 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
