Global| Dec 18 2018U.S. Housing Starts and Building Permits Recover
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total housing starts rose 3.2% (-3.6% y/y) during November to 1.256 million (AR) from 1.217 million in October, revised from 1.228 million. The level exceeded expectations for 1.230 million starts in the Action Economics Forecast [...]
Total housing starts rose 3.2% (-3.6% y/y) during November to 1.256 million (AR) from 1.217 million in October, revised from 1.228 million. The level exceeded expectations for 1.230 million starts in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
A 22.4% rise (21.7% y/y) in starts of multi-family units to 432,000 accounted for last month's gain in the total. It followed a 1.4% decline. Starts of single-family units fell 4.6% (-13.1% y/y) to 824,000, down for the third straight month.
Last month's increase in total starts reflected a roughly one-third improvement, both m/m and y/y, in the Northeast to 124,000 units from 90,000. Starts in the South rose 15.1% (1.3% y/y) to 687,000, an 11-year high. Countering these increases was a 19.2% decline (-12.4% y/y) in the Midwest to 156,000, which more-than-reversed the rise during October. Housing starts in the West fell 14.2% (-18.4% y/y) to 289,000, the lowest level since July.
Building permits increased 5.0% (0.4% y/y) to 1.328 million after a 0.4% slip. Single-family permits edged 0.1% higher (-1.9% y/y) to 848,000 following a 0.8% decline. Permits to build multi-family homes jumped 14.8% (4.6% y/y) to 480,000 after a 0.5% rise.
The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
| Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1,256 | 1,217 | 1,237 | -3.6 | 1,208 | 1,177 | 1,107 |
| Single-Family | 824 | 864 | 879 | -13.1 | 852 | 785 | 713 |
| Multi-Family | 432 | 353 | 358 | 21.7 | 356 | 393 | 394 |
| Starts By Region | |||||||
| Northeast | 124 | 90 | 141 | 33.3 | 111 | 116 | 135 |
| Midwest | 156 | 193 | 171 | -12.4 | 180 | 185 | 150 |
| South | 687 | 597 | 568 | 1.3 | 603 | 585 | 557 |
| West | 289 | 337 | 357 | -18.4 | 314 | 292 | 265 |
| Building Permits | 1,328 | 1,265 | 1,270 | 0.4 | 1,286 | 1,206 | 1,178 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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