Global| Mar 26 2019U.S. Housing Starts and Building Permits Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New home building activity weakened last month. Total housing starts during February declined 8.7% (-9.9% y/y) to 1.162 million units (SAAR) from 1.273 million in January, revised from 1.230 million. December's level also was revised [...]
New home building activity weakened last month. Total housing starts during February declined 8.7% (-9.9% y/y) to 1.162 million units (SAAR) from 1.273 million in January, revised from 1.230 million. December's level also was revised up to 1.140 million from 1.037 million. The February decline was the fifth in the last six months. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.236 million starts.
Starts of single-family homes declined 17.0% (-10.6% y/y) to 805,000 units and reversed the surge in January to 970,000 units, revised from 926,000. Multi-family home starts strengthened 17.8% (-8.5% y/y) to 357,000 units following declines in four of the previous five months.
The decline in new home building was widespread last month, led by a 29.5% shortfall (-25.8% y/y) in the Northeast to 98,000 units. Starts in the West fell 18.9% (-38.3% y/y) to 240,000 and were 39.2% below the cycle high reached last March. Starts in the South fell 6.8% (+7.8% y/y) to 663,000. Only in the Midwest were starts higher. They rose by 26.8% (4.5% y/y) following sharp declines in four of the previous five months.
Building permits eased 1.6% last month (-2.0% y/y) to 1.296 million after a 0.7% slip during January. Permits to build a single-family home were unchanged (-7.3% y/y) at 821,000. Multi-family building permits fell 4.2% (+8.7% y/y) to 475,000.
The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
| Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y % | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1,162 | 1,273 | 1,140 | -9.9 | 1,249 | 1,208 | 1,177 |
| Single-Family | 805 | 970 | 814 | -10.6 | 873 | 852 | 785 |
| Multi-Family | 357 | 303 | 326 | -8.5 | 377 | 356 | 393 |
| Starts By Region | |||||||
| Northeast | 98 | 139 | 111 | -25.8 | 111 | 111 | 116 |
| Midwest | 161 | 127 | 137 | 4.5 | 171 | 180 | 185 |
| South | 663 | 711 | 656 | 7.8 | 631 | 603 | 585 |
| West | 240 | 296 | 236 | -38.3 | 336 | 314 | 292 |
| Building Permits | 1,296 | 1,317 | 1,326 | -2.0 | 1,313 | 1,286 | 1,206 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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