Global| Mar 18 2013U.S. Home Builders Index Slips Again But Traffic Picks Up
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo fell to 44 this month following a downwardly revised February reading of 46. Expectations were for 47 in March. Nevertheless, the index [...]
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of
Home Builders-Wells Fargo fell to 44 this month following a downwardly
revised February reading of 46. Expectations were for 47 in March.
Nevertheless, the index level remained up by more than one half versus one
year ago. The index of single-family home sales fell to 47 while the index
of sales during the next six months improved to 51.
By region, the index for the South dropped to its lowest level in six months, down m/m for the third month in the last four. The index for the Northeast fell moderately to 39 but was up by one-half versus last year. The index for the West also fell moderately m/m but was up by more than three-quarters y/y while the index for the Midwest posted a m/m gain. Also higher was the home builders index of traffic of prospective home buyers. It increased m/m to 35, up by more than one-half over the last twelve months. The NAHB figures are seasonally adjusted.
The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions asking builders to rate market conditions as "good," "fair," "poor" or "very high" to "very low." The figure is thus a diffusion index with numerical results over 50 indicating a predominance of "good" readings. The weights assigned to the individual index components are .5920 for single family detached sales, present-time, .1358 for single family detached sales, next six months; and .2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The results are included in Haver's SURVEYS database. The expectation figure is available in Haver's MMSAMER database.
| National Association of Home Builders | Mar | Feb | Jan | Mar'12 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Housing Market Index, SA (All Good=100) | 44 | 46 | 47 | 28 | 34 | 16 | 16 |
| Single-Family Sales | 47 | 51 | 52 | 29 | 36 | 16 | 16 |
| Single-Family Sales: Next Six Months | 51 | 50 | 49 | 35 | 41 | 22 | 23 |
| Traffic of Prospective Buyers | 35 | 32 | 36 | 22 | 27 | 13 | 12 |
| Northeast | 39 | 41 | 36 | 25 | 29 | 17 | 20 |
| Midwest | 50 | 45 | 46 | 31 | 36 | 14 | 14 |
| South | 42 | 44 | 51 | 27 | 34 | 18 | 17 |
| West | 57 | 59 | 59 | 32 | 38 | 15 | 13 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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