
U.S. Home Builders Index Slight Increase is Disappointing
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo edged up one point this month to 47. The index now stands 6.8% above March of 2013. The latest reading disappointed consensus expectations [...]
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo edged up one point this month to 47. The index now stands 6.8% above March of 2013. The latest reading disappointed consensus expectations for a larger rise to 50. The index of single-family home sales was unchanged at 51 and was 12 points lower than the December peak. The index of expected sales during the next six months rose to 57 but still was down eleven points from the August peak. The NAHB figures are seasonally adjusted.
Realtors reported that their traffic index of prospective buyers held steady at 32 and remained sharply below the peak reading of 46 last August.
The index reading of activity in the West fell six points to its lowest reading since last May. The reading for the Midwest showed a two point decline, also to its lowest level since May of last year. The index for the South was stable but the figure for the Northeast improved to its highest level in six months.
The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions asking builders to rate market conditions as "good," "fair," "poor" or "very high" to "very low." The figure is thus a diffusion index with numerical results over 50 indicating a predominance of "good" readings. The weights assigned to the individual index components are .5920 for single family detached sales, present-time, .1358 for single family detached sales, next six months; and .2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The results are included in Haver's SURVEYS database. The expectations figure is available in Haver's MMSAMER database.
National Association of Home Builders | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr'13 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Composite Housing Market Index, SA (All Good=100) | 47 | 46 | 46 | 41 | 51 | 34 | 16 |
Single-Family Sales: Present | 51 | 51 | 51 | 44 | 55 | 36 | 16 |
Single-Family Sales: Next Six Months | 57 | 53 | 54 | 52 | 58 | 41 | 22 |
Traffic of Prospective Buyers | 32 | 32 | 31 | 30 | 39 | 27 | 13 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.