Global| Oct 16 2014U.S. Home Builders Index Retreat Is Country Wide
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo fell back to 54 during October from an unrevised 59 in September. The figure missed expectations for 59 in the Informa Global Markets [...]
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo fell back to 54 during October from an unrevised 59 in September. The figure missed expectations for 59 in the Informa Global Markets Survey.
The index of single-family home sales fell to 57, the lowest level in three months. The index of expected sales during the next six months also returned to a three-month low of 64. The NAHB figures are seasonally adjusted.
Realtors reported that their traffic index retreated to 41 after spiking in September.
Housing market activity eased around the country. The index for the Northeast fell m/m but was up by one-third y/y. The index reading for the Midwest declined to a three-month low (-14.5% y/y) while the West's reading fell to a four-month low (-8.5% y/y). The South's reading pulled back (+9.3% y/y) after the September jump.
The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions asking builders to rate market conditions as "good," "fair," "poor" or "very high" to "very low." The figure is thus a diffusion index with numerical results over 50 indicating a predominance of "good" readings. The weights assigned to the individual index components are .5920 for single-family detached sales, present time, .1358 for single-family detached sales, next six months; and .2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The results are included in Haver's SURVEYS database. The expectations figure is available in Haver's MMSAMER database.
The Fed's latest Beige Book covering regional economic conditions can be found here.
| National Association of Home Builders | Oct | Sep | Aug | Oct'13 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Housing Market Index, SA (All Good=100) | 54 | 59 | 55 | 54 | 51 | 34 | 16 |
| Single-Family Sales: Present | 57 | 63 | 58 | 58 | 55 | 36 | 16 |
| Single-Family Sales: Next Six Months | 64 | 67 | 65 | 61 | 58 | 41 | 22 |
| Traffic of Prospective Buyers | 41 | 47 | 42 | 43 | 39 | 27 | 13 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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