Global| Nov 18 2014U.S. Home Builders Index Rebounds, Notably in Northeast
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo recovered to 58 this month (7.4% y/y) after an unrevised decline to 54 in October. The figure beat expectations for 55 in the Informa Global [...]
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo recovered to 58 this month (7.4% y/y) after an unrevised decline to 54 in October. The figure beat expectations for 55 in the Informa Global Markets Survey.
The index of single-family home sales improved to 62 (6.9% y/y) and made up most of its October decline. The index of expected sales during the next six months also recovered to 66 (10.0% y/y), making up most of its October drop. The NAHB figures are seasonally adjusted.
Realtors reported that their traffic index recovered to 45, up 9.8% y/y.
Housing market activity recovered around the country, notably in the Northeast where the index jumped m/m to its highest level since March 2006. The index reading for the West gained 13.2%. That recovered its October decline but the reading remained 15.5% below its January high. The South's reading improved 3.3% to nearly its highest level since 2006. In the Midwest, the index gained 5.7%, but still was off 12.5% from the high reached three months ago.
The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions asking builders to rate market conditions as "good," "fair," "poor" or "very high" to "very low." The figure is thus a diffusion index with numerical results over 50 indicating a predominance of "good" readings. The weights assigned to the individual index components are .5920 for single-family detached sales, present time, .1358 for single-family detached sales, next six months and .2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The results are included in Haver's SURVEYS database. The expectations figure is available in Haver's MMSAMER database.
| National Association of Home Builders | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov'13 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Housing Market Index, SA (All Good=100) | 58 | 54 | 59 | 54 | 51 | 34 | 16 |
| Single-Family Sales: Present | 62 | 57 | 63 | 58 | 55 | 36 | 16 |
| Single-Family Sales: Next Six Months | 66 | 64 | 67 | 60 | 58 | 41 | 22 |
| Traffic of Prospective Buyers | 45 | 41 | 47 | 41 | 39 | 27 | 13 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
