Global| Apr 15 2013U.S. Home Builders Index Falls to Six-Month Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo declined to 42 this month following an unrevised March reading of 44. Expectations were for an index reading of 45 in April. The latest was [...]
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of
Home Builders-Wells Fargo declined to 42 this month following an unrevised
March reading of 44. Expectations were for an index reading of 45 in April.
The latest was the lowest since November. Nevertheless, the index level
remained up by three quarters versus one year ago. The index of
single-family home sales fell to 45 while the index of sales during the
next six months improved to 53. Also down m/m was the home builders index
of traffic of prospective home buyers. It fell sharply m/m to 30, its
lowest level since July.
Weakness spread throughout the country this month. The index for the Midwest dropped significantly to its lowest level in six months. The index for the Northeast also fell sharply to its lowest level since November. In addition, the indexes for the West and the South reversed the gains logged earlier this year. The NAHB figures are seasonally adjusted.
The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions asking builders to rate market conditions as "good," "fair," "poor" or "very high" to "very low." The figure is thus a diffusion index with numerical results over 50 indicating a predominance of "good" readings. The weights assigned to the individual index components are .5920 for single family detached sales, present-time, .1358 for single family detached sales, next six months; and .2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The results are included in Haver's SURVEYS database. The expectation figure is available in Haver's MMSAMER database.
| National Association of Home Builders | Apr | Mar | Feb | Apr'12 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Housing Market Index, SA (All Good=100) | 42 | 44 | 46 | 24 | 34 | 16 | 16 |
| Single-Family Sales | 45 | 47 | 51 | 25 | 36 | 16 | 16 |
| Single-Family Sales: Next Six Months | 53 | 50 | 50 | 31 | 41 | 22 | 23 |
| Traffic of Prospective Buyers | 30 | 34 | 32 | 18 | 27 | 13 | 12 |
| Northeast | 34 | 39 | 41 | 26 | 29 | 17 | 20 |
| Midwest | 41 | 49 | 45 | 22 | 36 | 14 | 14 |
| South | 40 | 42 | 44 | 23 | 34 | 18 | 17 |
| West | 52 | 55 | 59 | 31 | 38 | 15 | 13 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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