Global| Jan 16 2014U.S. Home Builders Index Dips But Traffic Falls Sharply
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo slipped a point to 56 this month but the figure remained near the expansion high. The December figure was revised to 57 from 58 and the [...]
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo slipped a point to 56 this month but the figure remained near the expansion high. The December figure was revised to 57 from 58 and the latest reading disappointed expectations for 58. The index of single-family home sales fell to 62 from the expansion high. The index of sales during the next six months also slipped to 60 and retraced its December advance. Realtors reported that their traffic index of prospective buyers deteriorated to 40, the lowest level since June.
Activity was mixed around the country. In the South, the index fell sharply and retraced all of its December gain while the figure for the Midwest dipped. Activity in the West surged to the expansion high and it rose modestly in the Northeast. The NAHB figures are seasonally adjusted. The index for the Northeast rose to 42 after a sharp November decrease.
The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions asking builders to rate market conditions as "good," "fair," "poor" or "very high" to "very low." The figure is thus a diffusion index with numerical results over 50 indicating a predominance of "good" readings. The weights assigned to the individual index components are .5920 for single family detached sales, present-time, .1358 for single family detached sales, next six months; and .2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The results are included in Haver's SURVEYS database. The expectations figure is available in Haver's MMSAMER database.
| National Association of Home Builders | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan'13 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Housing Market Index, SA (All Good=100) | 56 | 57 | 54 | 47 | 51 | 34 | 16 |
| Single-Family Sales: Present | 62 | 63 | 58 | 52 | 55 | 36 | 16 |
| Single-Family Sales: Next Six Months | 60 | 62 | 60 | 49 | 58 | 41 | 22 |
| Traffic of Prospective Buyers | 40 | 43 | 41 | 36 | 39 | 27 | 13 |
| Northeast | 42 | 40 | 44 | 36 | 38 | 29 | 17 |
| Midwest | 60 | 61 | 54 | 46 | 54 | 36 | 14 |
| South | 53 | 60 | 55 | 51 | 51 | 34 | 18 |
| West | 71 | 61 | 58 | 59 | 56 | 38 | 15 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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