Global| Dec 07 2010U.S. Hiring Improves Indicates Manpower Inc. Survey
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The latest Manpower Inc. Survey suggested that recent improvement in the U.S. labor market will pick up next quarter. For Q1 2011, the level of the seasonally adjusted diffusion index rose to 9 following a reading of 5 in Q4. The [...]
The latest Manpower Inc. Survey suggested that recent improvement in the U.S.
labor market will pick up next quarter. For Q1 2011, the level of the seasonally
adjusted diffusion index rose to 9 following a reading of 5 in Q4. The latest
figure was the highest in two years. Since inception in 1976, there has been a
66% correlation between the level of the index and the q/q change in payroll
employment.
The Manpower Inc Employment Outlook Survey is a quarterly measurement of hiring intentions of more than 15,000 employers in 473 cities. Employers
declare their intentions to increase, decrease, or maintain the size of their present workforce
for the upcoming three-month period. The survey was designed with the assistance of the Survey Research Center of the
University of Michigan. The current seasonal adjustments are by
Manpower, Inc. Haver calculated the historical seasonally adjusted series.
The overall not seasonally adjusted diffusion index remained steady with Q4 at a low level of 4. The detail of the survey indicates that Q1 hiring plans rema6ins broadly positive across industries but was strongest in the wholesale & retail and the professional & business services sectors. The indexes for construction and durable manufacturing slipped Q/Q but elsewhere there was improvement.
The Manpower Inc Employment Outlook Survey is a quarterly measurement of hiring intentions of more than 15,000 employers in 473 cities. Employers declare their intentions to increase, decrease, or maintain the size of their present workforce for the upcoming three-month period.
The figures referenced above are available in Haver's USECON database.
| Manpower Inc. Employment Outlook Survey (%) |
Q1'11 | Q4'10 | Q3'10 | Q2'10 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Industries (SA) | 9 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 13 |
| All Industries (NSA) | 4 | 4 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 13 |
| Construction | -9 | -8 | 8 | 4 | -2 | -6 | 4 |
| Manufacturing - Durables | 6 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 5 | -6 | 13 |
| Manufacturing - Nondurables | 6 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 7 | -2 | 11 |
| Wholesale & Retail Trade | 10 | 13 | 15 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 13 |
| Transportation & Utilities | 2 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 3 | -4 | 14 |
| Professional & Business Services | 11 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 11 | 8 | -- |
| Education & Health Services | 6 | 4 | -2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -- |
| Financial Activities | 4 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 3 | -- |
| Government | 0 | -6 | -2 | -1 | -3 | -3 | 10 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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