Global| Nov 13 2019U.S. Government Budget Deficit Widens
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a $134.5 billion budget deficit during October compared to a $100.5 billion deficit twelve months earlier. Budget receipts fell 2.8% y/y while outlays rose 7.6% [...]
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a $134.5 billion budget deficit during October compared to a $100.5 billion deficit twelve months earlier. Budget receipts fell 2.8% y/y while outlays rose 7.6% y/y. October is the first month of the new fiscal year. The pattern of receipts and outlays changed little from those in FY 2019 when the federal government budget deficit totaled $984.4 billion compared to the $779.0 billion shortfall in FY 2018. That widening occurred as a 4.0% rise in revenues was outpaced by an 8.2% rise in outlays. For October alone, a $121.5 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Tax receipts declined last month by 2.8% y/y. Personal income tax revenues fell 1.9% y/y after a 2.0% rise last year. Corporate tax receipts declined 17.9% y/y. Social insurance receipts rose 3.8% y/y after a 6.2% FY'19 rise and excise taxes collapsed 59.0% y/y.
Government outlays increased a fairly steady 7.6% y/y. National defense spending strengthened 7.5% y/y following 8.2% y/y growth during all of FY'19. Health program outlays rose an increased 9.2% y/y. Medicare expenses increased 5.9% y/y as growth decelerated sharply from the 2018 pace. Income security payments declined 2.2% y/y while Social Security payments grew a steady 6.0% y/y. Lower interest rates helped growth in interest payments slow to 1.6% y/y from 15.7% growth last year.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
| United States Government Finance | October | FY'19 | FY'18 | FY'17 | FY'16 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance (Billions) | -- | $-134.5 | $-984.4 | $-779.0 | $-665.8 | $-585.6 |
| Fiscal 'YTD | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| As a percent of GDP | -- | -- | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.2% |
| % of Total | ||||||
| Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2020, Y/Y Change) | 100 | -2.8% | 4.0% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| Individual Income Taxes | 51 | -1.9 | 2.0 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.3 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | -- | -17.9 | 12.5 | -31.1 | -0.8 | -12.9 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 35 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 0.8 | 4.2 | 4.7 |
| Excise Taxes | 3 | -59.0 | 4.1 | 13.3 | -11.8 | -3.3 |
| Net Outlays (Fiscal Year YTD 2020, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 4.5 |
| National Defense | 16 | 7.5 | 8.8 | 0.1 | 6.1 | 0.7 |
| Health | 13 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 9.8 | -1.9 | 6.2 |
| Medicare | 14 | 5.9 | 10.6 | -1.4 | 0.6 | 8.7 |
| Income Security | 12 | -2.2 | 4.0 | -1.6 | -2.1 | 1.0 |
| Social Security | 24 | 6.0 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 3.2 |
| Veterans Benefits & Services | 4 | 4.4 | 11.8 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 9.3 |
| Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 2 | 44.9 | 43.8 | -34.0 | 31.6 | -10.2 |
| Interest | 8 | 1.6 | 15.7 | 23.6 | 9.1 | 7.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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