Global| Aug 12 2019U.S. Government Budget Deficit Continues to Deepen
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a $119.7 billion budget deficit during July compared to a $76.9 billion shortfall posted one year earlier. A $117.5 billion deficit had been expected in the Action [...]
The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a $119.7 billion budget deficit during July compared to a $76.9 billion shortfall posted one year earlier. A $117.5 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the first ten months of FY'19, the budget deficit deepened to $866.8 billion compared to a deficit of $684.0 billion during the first ten months of FY'18.
Growth in tax receipts continued to improve. Net revenues rose 3.4% y/y so far this fiscal year compared to a 1.0% y/y gain during in first ten months of FY'18. Slowing were personal income tax receipts where growth slipped to 1.0% y/y so far in FY'19, compared to a 7.8% y/y rise in the first ten months of FY'18. Growth from other sources picked up the slack. Corporate tax receipts increased 3.2% y/y so far this year after a 28.5% ten-month y/y drop last year. Social insurance receipts rose 6.7% y/y following little change y/y ten months into FY'18. Excise taxes rose by 11.7% y/y after last year's 8.5% y/y rise ten month rise.
Spending growth quickened this year compared to last. Government outlays increased 8.0% y/y so far in FY'19, nearly double last year's 10-month y/y rise. National defense spending strengthened 9.5% y/y following a 0.4% y/y rise in the first ten months last year. Medicare outlays rose by 12.6% y/y following a 3.5% ten-month y/y increase last year. Growth in income security payments increased 4.5% y/y so far in FY'19 after little-change in the first ten months of FY'18. Social Security payments gained 5.7% y/y after rising 4.5% y/y in the first ten months of FY'18. Offsetting these accelerations, spending growth on health programs decelerated to 6.4% y/y, after a 10.4% y/y gain in the first ten months of last fiscal year. Growth in interest payments slowed to 14.4% y/y from 20.4% last year.
Haver's data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey numbers are in the AS1REPNA database.
| United States Government Finance | July | FY'18 | FY'17 | FY'16 | FY'15 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance (Billions) | -- | $-119.7 | $-779.0 | $-665.8 | $-585.6 | $-439.1 |
| Fiscal 'YTD | -- | $-866.8 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| As a percent of GDP | -- | -- | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.5% |
| % of Total | ||||||
| Net Revenues (Fiscal Year YTD 2019, Y/Y Change) | 100 | 3.4% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 7.6% |
| Individual Income Taxes | 51 | 1.0 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.3 | 10.5 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | -- | 3.2 | -31.1 | -0.8 | -12.9 | 7.2 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 35 | 6.7 | 0.8 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 4.1 |
| Excise Taxes | 3 | 11.7 | 13.3 | -11.8 | -3.3 | 5.3 |
| Net Outlays (Fiscal Year YTD 2019, Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 5.3 |
| National Defense | 16 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 0.7 | -2.3 |
| Health | 13 | 6.4 | 3.3 | -1.9 | 6.2 | 17.8 |
| Medicare | 14 | 12.6 | -1.4 | 0.6 | 8.7 | 6.7 |
| Income Security | 12 | 4.5 | -1.6 | -2.1 | 1.0 | -0.9 |
| Social Security | 24 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 4.4 |
| Veterans Benefits & Services | 4 | 12.9 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 9.3 | 6.8 |
| Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 2 | 53.6 | -34.0 | 31.6 | -10.2 | 34.7 |
| Interest | 8 | 14.4 | 23.6 | 9.1 | 7.8 | -1.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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