Global| Apr 26 2019U.S. GDP Growth Unexpectedly Accelerates as Price Increase Slows
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The economy began 2019 on a firm footing. Gross domestic product, adjusted for price inflation, increased 3.2% during Q1 2019. The gain lifted growth during the last four quarters to 3.2%, the strongest increase since Q2 2015. The [...]
The economy began 2019 on a firm footing. Gross domestic product, adjusted for price inflation, increased 3.2% during Q1 2019. The gain lifted growth during the last four quarters to 3.2%, the strongest increase since Q2 2015. The rise outpaced expectations for a 1.9% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Stronger inventory investment and a diminished foreign trade deficit fueled growth last quarter.
The GDP price index increased 0.9% (1.9% y/y), the weakest rise in three years. It compared to a 1.2% expected rise.
The GDP figures can be found in Haver's USECON and USNA database. USNA contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' detail in the national accounts. Both databases include tables of the newly published not seasonally adjusted data. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in AS1REPNA.
| Chained 2012 $ (%, AR) | Q1'19 (Advance Estimate) | Q4'18 | Q3'18 | Q1'19 Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Domestic Product | 3.2 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 1.6 |
| Inventory Effect (%-point) | 0.7 | 0.1 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | -0.5 |
| Final Sales | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 2.1 |
| Foreign Trade Effect (%-point) | 1.0 | -0.1 | -2.0 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.3 | -0.3 |
| Domestic Final Sales | 1.4 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.3 |
| Personal Consumption Expenditure | 1.2 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.7 |
| Nonresidential Fixed Investment | 2.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 4.8 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 0.5 |
| Residential Investment | -2.8 | -4.7 | -3.5 | -3.1 | -0.3 | 3.3 | 6.5 |
| Government Spending | 2.4 | -0.4 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 1.5 | -0.1 | 1.4 |
| Chain-Type Price Index | |||||||
| GDP | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 |
| Personal Consumption Expenditure | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 |
| Nonresidential Investment | 1.3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | -0.8 |
| Residential Investment | 1.8 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 3.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
