Global| Dec 20 2012U.S. GDP Growth Is Revised Up With Final Sales & Int'l Trade
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Economic growth during Q3'12 was better than reported initially. Real GDP increased at a revised 3.1% (2.6% y/y) annual rate, up from 2.7% estimated last month and 2.0% initially. The gain improved from 1.3% during Q2 and beat [...]
Economic growth during Q3'12 was better than reported initially. Real GDP increased at a revised 3.1% (2.6% y/y) annual rate, up from 2.7% estimated last month and 2.0% initially. The gain improved from 1.3% during Q2 and beat Consensus expectations for a 2.8% rise. A quicker increase in domestic final demand and more improvement in the foreign trade deficit accounted for the change.
Growth in domestic final demand was nudged up to 1.9% (2.2% y/y) from last month's estimated 1.7% advance. Growth in consumer spending and government were both raised. The decline in business investment was lessened. Improvement in the foreign trade sector contributed an improved 0.4 percentage points to the Q3 GDP advance. Exports rose a very modest 1.9% (3.2% y/y) and imports slipped 0.6% (+2.5% y/y). A quicker rate of inventory accumulation added a little-changed 0.7 percentage points to growth last quarter. However, farm inventories alone reduced GDP growth by an unrevised 0.4 percentage points due to the drought.
Corporate profits growth was lessened slightly to 2.4% (7.5% y/y). After tax profits rose 4.6% (17.9% y/y). Last quarter's gain owed to a 17.5% (29.5% y/y) jump in financial sector earnings. Foreign sector profits fell 1.9% (-2.4% y/y) and domestic nonfinancial earnings fell 1.3% (+5.1% y/y).
The GDP chain price index rose at an elevated and unrevised 2.7% (1.7% y/y) rate, bolstered by a 6.5% (-1.3% y/y) decline in the import price index. The gain in the domestic final sales price index remained moderate at a 1.5% (1.4% y/y) rate.
The latest GDP figures can be found in Haver's USECON and USNA databases; USNA contains basically all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' detail on the national accounts, including the new integrated economics accounts and the recently added GDP data for U.S. Territories. The Consensus estimates can be found in AS1REPNA.
| Chained 2005 $,% AR | Q3'12 (3rd Est) |
Q3'12 (Revised) |
Q3'12 (Adv) |
Q2'12 | Q1'12 | Q3'12 Y/Y |
2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Domestic Product | 3.1 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 2.4 | -3.1 |
| Inventory Effect | 0.7 | 0.8 | -0.1 | -0.5 | -0.4 | 0.6 | -0.2 | 1.5 | -0.8 |
| Final Sales | 2.4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | -2.3 |
| Foreign Trade Effect | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 1.0 |
| Domestic Final Sales | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.3 | -3.3 |
| Demand Components | |||||||||
| Personal Consumption | 1.6 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.8 | -1.9 |
| Business Fixed Investment | -1.8 | -2.2 | -1.3 | 3.6 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 8.6 | 0.7 | -18.1 |
| Residential Investment | 13.6 | 14.3 | 14.4 | 8.4 | 20.6 | 13.6 | -1.4 | -3.1 | -22.4 |
| Government Spending | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.7 | -0.7 | -3.0 | -0.5 | -3.1 | 0.6 | 3.7 |
| Chain-Type Price Index | |||||||||
| GDP | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Final Sales of Dom Prod | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.9 |
| Final Sales to Dom Purchasers | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 1.6 | -0.2 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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