Global| Apr 29 2015U.S. GDP Growth is Negligible as Business Investment and Exports Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Real GDP growth of 0.2% (3.0% y/y) last quarter followed an unrevised 2.2% Q4 gain. The increase disappointed expectations for a 1.1% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Last quarter's economic performance was its weakest in [...]
Real GDP growth of 0.2% (3.0% y/y) last quarter followed an unrevised 2.2% Q4 gain. The increase disappointed expectations for a 1.1% rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Last quarter's economic performance was its weakest in a year, held back by a 3.4% decline in business investment and deterioration in the foreign trade deficit.
Economic weakness helped the chain price index slip at a 0.1% annual rate (+0.9% y/y), led by a sharp drop in consumer prices which reflected lower gasoline prices.
The latest GDP figures can be found in Haver's USECON and USNA databases; USNA contains basically all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis' detail in the national accounts, including the integrated economic accounts and the recently added GDP data for U.S. Territories. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in AS1REPNA.
| Chained 2009 $, %, AR | Q1'15 (Advance Estimate) | Q4'14 | Q3'14 | Q1 Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Domestic Product | 0.2 | 2.2 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 2.3 |
| Inventory Effect | 0.7 | -0.1 | -0.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 |
| Final Sales | -0.5 | 2.3 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Foreign Trade Effect | -1.3 | -1.0 | 0.8 | -0.4 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| Domestic Final Sales | 0.7 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 2.1 |
| Demand Components | |||||||
| Personal Consumption Expenditures | 1.9 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.8 |
| Business Fixed Investment | -3.4 | 4.7 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 7.2 |
| Residential Investment | 1.3 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 11.9 | 13.5 |
| Government Spending | -0.8 | -1.9 | 4.4 | 0.8 | -0.2 | -2.0 | -1.4 |
| Chain-Type Price Index | |||||||
| GDP | -0.1 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Personal Consumption Expenditures | -2.0 | -0.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.8 |
| Less Food/Energy | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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