Global| Mar 31 2015U.S. Gasoline Prices Under Pressure Due to Excess Supply
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Gasoline prices dipped a penny last week to $2.45 cents per gallon and remained down by roughly one-third versus a year ago. Prices remained well below the $3.70 per gallon peak last June. Haver Analytics constructs factors adjusting [...]
Gasoline prices dipped a penny last week to $2.45 cents per gallon and remained down by roughly one-third versus a year ago. Prices remained well below the $3.70 per gallon peak last June. Haver Analytics constructs factors adjusting for the seasonal variation in pump prices. The seasonally adjusted price fell last week to $2.40 per gallon.
A supply-demand imbalance are putting fuel prices under downward pressure. Gasoline inventories grew 7.5% y/y while inventories of crude oil & petroleum products overall increased 9.2% y/y. Gasoline demand edged 0.4% higher y/y while the demand for all petroleum products improved 2.9% y/y.
For the week ended March 27, WTI crude oil prices rebounded to an average $48.79 per barrel (-51.5% y/y). Yesterday, prices held steady at $48.68 per barrel. These prices compare to a June peak of $107.95. The seasonally adjusted price, generated by Haver Analytics, improved to $48.23 per barrel last week. Brent crude oil prices gained last week to $55.01 per barrel (-48.4% y/y) but fell back to $53.99 yesterday.
Natural gas prices edged down to $2.71 (-38.5% y/y) per mmbtu during the week ended March 27. Prices were lower at $2.61 yesterday.
The energy price data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy. The petroleum demand and inventory figures are from the Oil & Gas Journal Weekly. These data can be found in Haver's WEEKLY database. The daily figures are in DAILY and greater detail on prices, demand and production, along with regional breakdowns, are in OILWKLY.
| Weekly Energy Prices | 03/30/15 | 03/23/15 | 03/16/15 | Y/Y% | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Gasoline ($ per Gallon, Regular) | 2.45 | 2.46 | 2.45 | -31.6 | 3.36 | 3.51 | 3.62 |
| Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl., WSJ) | 48.79 | 44.39 | 47.69 | -51.5 | 93.63 | 97.95 | 94.20 |
| Natural Gas ($/mmbtu, LA, WSJ) | 2.71 | 2.78 | 2.75 | -38.5 | 4.37 | 3.73 | 2.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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