Global| Jan 05 2016U.S. Gasoline Prices Near Seven-Year Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
For all of 2015, the pump price for a gallon of regular gasoline averaged $2.03 according to the U.S. Department of Energy, the lowest level since 2008. Prices have fallen 45% since late-April of 2004. As of last week, pump prices [...]
For all of 2015, the pump price for a gallon of regular gasoline averaged $2.03 according to the U.S. Department of Energy, the lowest level since 2008. Prices have fallen 45% since late-April of 2004. As of last week, pump prices held at $2.03 per gallon (-8.4% y/y), where they've been since late-November. Haver Analytics constructs factors adjusting for the seasonal variation in pump prices. The seasonally adjusted price fell one penny last week to $2.26 per gallon. Declines in spot market gasoline prices outpaced the decline in pump prices, falling 16.2% y/y to $1.27 per gallon as of last week.
During 2015, WTI crude oil costs also fell sharply. Prices averaged $48.90 last year, off 47.8% y/y and were $36.97 per barrel last week (-30.8% y/y). Yesterday's price of $36.76 was up slightly from the $34.55 low reached two weeks ago. Prices were down from the daily high of $113.93 in April 2011. Brent crude oil prices held w/w at $37.06 per barrel (-33.6% y/y) and were $37.33 yesterday.
Natural gas prices also were under pressure in 2015, falling 40.0% to average $2.62 per mmbtu. Increased shale-gas production weighed heavily on prices. Yesterday, prices rallied to $2.21 from their December low of $1.85, but still were down roughly one-quarter y/y.
Falling gasoline inventories provided some support for prices last year with a 3.3% decline, continuing to drop through last week. Inventories of all petroleum products, however, rose 9.3% for the full year. Crude oil production (input to refineries) increased 1.2% y/y during the last four weeks. Gasoline demand improved 0.4% y/y last week but demand for all petroleum products eased 0.2% y/y.
The energy price data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy. The petroleum demand and inventory figures are from the Oil & Gas Journal Weekly. These data can be found in Haver's WEEKLY database. The daily figures are in DAILY and greater detail on prices, demand and production, along with regional breakdowns, are in OILWKLY.
| Weekly Energy Prices | 01/04/16 | 12/28/15 | 12/21/15 | Y/Y% | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Gasoline ($ per Gallon, Regular) | 2.03 | 2.03 | 2.03 | -8.4 | 2.03 | 2.30 | 3.33 |
| Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl., WSJ) | 36.97 | 36.26 | 35.78 | -30.8 | 48.90 | 93.64 | 97.96 |
| Natural Gas ($/mmbtu, LA, WSJ) | 2.21 | 1.63 | 1.69 | -26.8 | 2.62 | 4.37 | 3.73 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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