Global| Oct 07 2008U.S. Gasoline Prices Fell to Lowest Since April, Demand Growth Lowest Since 1997
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
For a gallon of regular gasoline, the retail price fell by a nickel last week to the lowest level since mid-April. According to the U.S. Department of Energy survey, at an average of $3.48 per gallon gasoline prices are down 63 cents [...]
For a gallon of regular gasoline, the retail price fell by a nickel last week to the lowest level since mid-April. According to the U.S. Department of Energy survey, at an average of $3.48 per gallon gasoline prices are down 63 cents since their peak in early July, or by 15.3%. Despite the recent decline, prices remained up by more than one quarter from the year ago level of $3.00. The latest decline was accompanied by a drop in the average price for all grades of gasoline to $3.54 per gallon.
Versus Friday, the spot market price for a gallon of regular gasoline plunged another twenty cents per gallon to $2.12. The drop lowered prices to their lowest since October of last year. In futures trading the November contract closed even lower at $2.06 per gallon.
Weekly gasoline prices can be found in Haver's WEEKLY database. Daily prices are in the DAILY database.
According to the U.S. Department of Energy, the demand for gasoline fell 1.9% during the last four weeks. That was the largest weekly decline since early 2005 and continued to reflect a drop off in seasonal driving. The weakness in gasoline demand goes beyond that. It was down 4.1% y/y, the largest y/y decline since early 1997.
The DOE figures are available in Haver's OILWKLY database.
The price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil reversed the prior week's gain and fell to an average $98.58 per barrel, down from the high in July of $145.66. WTI crude prices yesterday were quite weak and they fell to $87.82 /bbl.
Yesterday, the two-month futures price for crude oil fell to $86.71 per barrel.
Last week, prices for natural gas fell to an average $7.30 per mmbtu (+8.1% y/y). Prices fell further yesterday to $7.14/mmbtu. The high for natural gas prices was in early July at $13.19/mmbtu.
Subprime Outcomes: Risky Mortgages, Homeownership Experiences and Foreclosures from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston is available here.
| Weekly Prices | 10/06/08 | 09/29/08 | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Regular Gasoline ($ per Gallon) | 3.48 | 3.63 | 25.8% | 2.80 | 2.57 | 2.27 |
| Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl.) | 98.68 | 110.09 | 20.0% | 72.25 | 66.12 | 56.60 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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