Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
Global| Mar 09 2010

U.S. Gasoline Prices Are Highest Since 2008

Summary

Gasoline prices continued their rally. At $2.75 per gallon last week, the pump price for regular gasoline was at the highest level since January which was the highest level since September 2008. Yesterday, the spot market price for a [...]


Gasoline prices continued their rally. At $2.75 per gallon last week, the pump price for regular gasoline was at the highest level since January which was the highest level since September 2008. Yesterday, the spot market price for a gallon of regular gasoline increased to $2.18, also its highest since 2008. The figures are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy and can be found in Haver's WEEKLY & DAILY databases.

The price for a barrel of light sweet crude (WTI) rose last week to $80.19 though it remained down from the early-January high of $82.59. Nevertheless, prices have risen from $71.53 early this past December and are more than double the December 2008 low of $32.37. Yesterday, the spot price rose further to $81.87.· Demand for gasoline fell 2.5% last week versus one year ago. That decline compared to a 3.9% increase at the beginning of October. The demand for residual fuel oil spiked by one-third with falling temperatures in the Northeast & Midwest. However, distillate demand fell 7.7% y/y, a decline more moderate than the 21.6% y/y shortfall at the beginning of last July. Inventories of crude oil and petroleum products slipped in February but were up 1.0% from one year ago.

U.S. natural gas prices fell last week to an average $4.75 per mmbtu (+11.8% y/y) from the high of $6.50 early in January. Nevertheless, prices remained double the September low.

Outside of energy, commodity prices also have been strong. Copper has led the gain as prices have more-than doubled since early last year. Scrap steel prices remain strong with a doubling during the same period. Aluminum prices have leveled off since December but remain up by two-thirds since the 2009 low. With improved housing activity has come strength in lumber prices which have risen more than 50% since early-2009. Cotton prices also have nearly doubled with improvement in consumer spending. In the agricultural area, prices of foodstuffs including wheat, corn & butter, as well as livestock have risen by one-half. Finally, gold prices near $1,126.50/pound have risen 50% since the fall of '08 and have roughly tripled since 2001.

The energy & commodity price data can be found in Haver's WEEKLY database while the daily figures are in DAILY. The gasoline demand figures are in OILWKLY

Weekly Prices 03/01/10 03/01/10 02/22/10 Y/Y 2009 2008 2007
Retail Regular Gasoline ($ per Gallon, Regular) 2.75 2.70 2.66 41.7% 2.35 3.25 2.80
Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI  ($ per bbl.) 80.19 79.26 78.30 85.4% 61.39 100.16 72.25
  • Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

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