Global| Jan 27 2009U.S. Gasoline Price Rise Stabilized
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The recent rise in regular gasoline prices stabilized last week after three consecutive weeks of increase. At an average $1.84 per gallon prices about matched the prior week's level but that still was up 13 cents from the recent low, [...]
The recent rise in regular gasoline prices stabilized last week after three consecutive weeks of increase. At an average $1.84 per gallon prices about matched the prior week's level but that still was up 13 cents from the recent low, according to the U.S. Department of Energy survey. The latest level was near the highest price since late November. Yesterday, the spot market price for regular gasoline held stable with Friday's level of $1.17 per gallon which also was the average during last week.
Weekly gasoline prices can be found in Haver's WEEKLY database. Daily prices are in the DAILY database.
Demand continued quite weak for gasoline in reaction to the economy's weakness. The U.S. Department of Energy reported that the demand for gasoline fell by 3.2% during the latest four weeks. While the rate of decline remained nearly the fastest since late-1995 (the latest four weeks versus the same four weeks in 2008) it has been stable since November. The demand for all petroleum products also has been down a sharp 4.7% y/y. These numbers are available in Haver's OILWKLY database.
The source for that reduced demand for gasoline is the cutback in vehicle miles driven which have fallen 5.3% year-to-year during the twelve months ended November. The rate of decline has been accelerating since late 2007 and it is nearly unprecedented. These Department of Transportation figures are available in Haver's OGJ database.
The price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude moved back up last week to $42.18 per barrel. Prices reached their high of $145.66 last July. In futures trading yesterday, the one-month price for crude oil moved higher versus last week to $45.73 per barrel. The two month futures price was higher still at $48.49.
The price of natural gas slipped further to $4.80 per mmbtu (-39.1% y/y). The latest average price was almost 50% below natural gas prices in early-July of $13.19/mmbtu.
Bagehot on the Financial Crisis of 1825...and 2008 from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
The Fed's Response To The Credit Crunch, also from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available here.
| Weekly Prices | 01/26/09 | 01/19/09 | Y/Y | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Regular Gasoline ($ per Gallon) | 1.84 | 1.85 | -38.3% | 3.25 | 2.80 | 2.57 |
| Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl.) | 42.18 | 36.91 | -52.8% | 100.16 | 72.25 | 66.12 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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