Global| Nov 08 2011U.S. Gasoline Price Falls While Demand Collapses
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Divergent movement underscores recent trends in energy prices. The pump price for regular gasoline fell three cents last week to $3.42 per gallon. Prices remained down versus May when they averaged $3.91. Retail prices usually start [...]
Divergent movement underscores recent trends in energy prices. The pump price for regular gasoline fell three cents last week to $3.42 per gallon. Prices remained down versus May when they averaged $3.91. Retail prices usually start to ease this time of year with reduced seasonal demand. To account for this pattern, Haver Analytics calculates seasonal factors. As a result, the adjusted gasoline price ticked up to $3.59 per gallon, up eighteen cents in the last four weeks. Yesterday, the wholesale price for a gallon of unleaded rose to $2.78, up eight cents from last week's average.
Gasoline demand fell a sharp 4.0% on average during the last four weeks versus last year. Demand for residual fuel oil, used for heating, dropped 20.0% y/y but distillate demand rose 6.6%. Inventories of crude oil and petroleum products fell 5.0% year-to-year compared to 10.0% growth in the middle of 2009.
Crude oil prices moved higher last week. Light Sweet Crude averaged $93.24 versus $79.71 averaged during the first week of October. Yesterday, prices were even higher at $95.52 but they remained down from the late-April peak of $113.93. Brent crude remained relatively expensive versus WTI and yesterday sold for $114.50 per barrel. Prices peaked earlier at $126.21.
Finally, natural gas prices fell last week to $3.48 per mmbtu and prices remained lower versus last year's early-January peak of $6.50. Yesterday, prices fell further to $3.36.
The energy price data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy and can be found in Haver's WEEKLY database. The daily figures are in DAILY and the gasoline demand figures are in OILWKLY
| Weekly Price | 11/7/11 | 10/31/11 | 10/24/11 | Y/Y% | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Regular Gasoline ($ per Gallon, Regular) | 3.42 | 3.45 | 3.46 | 19.5 | 2.78 | 2.35 | 3.25 |
| Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl.) | 93.24 | 92.32 | 86.71 | 10.0 | 79.51 | 61.39 | 100.16 |
| Natural Gas ($/mmbtu) | 3.48 | 3.62 | 3.61 | 1.7 | 4.40 | 3.95 | 8.88 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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