Global| Nov 19 2013U.S. Gasoline Price Decline Stabilizes as Demand Firms
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The price for a gallon of regular gasoline edged 3 cents higher last week to $3.22 (-6.1% y/y), but remained near the lowest level since February 2011. They're down from the $3.78 per gallon peak reached late in February. Much of the [...]
The price for a gallon of regular gasoline edged 3 cents higher last week to $3.22 (-6.1% y/y), but remained near the lowest level since February 2011. They're down from the $3.78 per gallon peak reached late in February. Much of the decline reflects less driving this time of year. Haver Analytics constructs seasonal factors to account for this seasonal volatility. The adjusted price rose 7 cents last week to $3.42 per gallon.
The demand for all petroleum products firmed by 5.0% y/y. Gasoline demand gained 4.7% y/y last week. Residual fuel oil needs, used for heating, fell by 39.9% y/y but distillate demand gained 6.9% y/y. Inventories of crude oil and petroleum products increased 1.1% y/y.
The per barrel cost of WTI crude oil slipped to $93.95 (+9.4% y/y) last week, down from $108.77 in early September. Yesterday, prices continued lower to $93.03. Brent crude oil prices moved up last week to $107.10 per barrel (-1.9% y/y). Yesterday, prices ticked higher to $108.72 per barrel.
Natural gas prices improved last week to $3.61 per mmbtu (1.6% y/y). Yesterday, prices moved higher to $3.69 but remained down from the April peak of $4.26.
The energy price data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy and can be found in Haver's WEEKLY database. The daily figures are in DAILY and the gasoline demand and inventory figures are in OILWKLY.
| Weekly Energy Prices | 11/18/13 | 11/11/13 | 11/04/13 | Y/Y% | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Gasoline ($ per Gallon, Regular) | 3.22 | 3.19 | 3.27 | -6.1 | 3.62 | 3.52 | 2.78 |
| Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl.) | 93.95 | 94.31 | 96.95 | 9.4 | 94.20 | 95.14 | 79.51 |
| Natural Gas ($/mmbtu, LA) | 3.61 | 3.46 | 3.56 | 1.6 | 2.75 | 3.99 | 4.00 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
