Global| Mar 17 2020U.S. Gasoline & Oil Prices Fall Further
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Less travel helped lower retail gasoline prices to $2.25 per gallon (-11.8% y/y) in the week ended March 16 versus $2.38 per gallon in the previous week. Prices remained below an early-May peak of $2.90 per gallon. Haver Analytics [...]
Less travel helped lower retail gasoline prices to $2.25 per gallon (-11.8% y/y) in the week ended March 16 versus $2.38 per gallon in the previous week. Prices remained below an early-May peak of $2.90 per gallon. Haver Analytics adjusts prices for seasonal variation. The seasonally adjusted gasoline price fell to $2.30 per gallon.
The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil remains under pressure as the coronavirus reduces demand. It declined to $28.70 per barrel yesterday after falling to an average $32.35 (-44.0% y/y) last week. Prices have fallen from $61.75 averaged in the first week of January. The price of Brent crude oil weakened to $30.10 per barrel yesterday from an average of $34.97 last week, down from $50.04 in the prior week.
The average price of natural gas improved to $1.87/mmbtu (-35.2% y/y) last week from $1.80 in the prior week. The price rose to $1.89/mmbtu yesterday but remained below the peak of $2.81/mmbtu early in November.
In the four weeks ending March 6, gasoline demand increased 1.7% y/y, while total petroleum product demand declined 1.1% y/y. Gasoline inventories increased 0.4% y/y and inventories of all petroleum products increased 1.2% y/y. Crude oil input to refineries held steady y/y in the past four weeks.
These data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy. The price data can be found in Haver's WEEKLY and DAILY databases. Greater detail on prices, as well as the demand, production and inventory data, along with regional breakdowns, are in OILWKLY.
| Weekly Energy Prices | 03/16/20 | 03/09/20 | 03/02/20 | Y/Y % | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Gasoline ($ per Gallon Regular, Monday Price, End of Period) | 2.25 | 2.38 | 2.42 | -11.8 | 2.57 | 2.27 | 2.47 |
| Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl, Previous Week's Average) | 32.35 | 45.55 | 48.34 | -44.0 | 56.91 | 64.95 | 50.87 |
| Natural Gas ($/mmbtu, LA, Previous Week's Average) | 1.87 | 1.80 | 1.90 | -35.2 | 2.57 | 3.18 | 2.99 |
U.S. Retail Sales Weaken Broadly Ahead of Major Coronavirus Impacts
by Tom Moeller March 17, 2020
Total retail sales including food service establishments declined 0.5% (+4.3% y/y) during February after rising 0.6% in January, revised from 0.3%. A 0.2% gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Retail sales excluding motor vehicles & parts fell 0.4% (+4.2% y/y) following a 0.6% increase, revised from 0.3%. A 0.1% uptick had been anticipated.
Retail sales alone fell 0.5% (+4.2% y/y) during February following a 0.6% January rise, revised from 0.1%. A 1.4% decline (-1.0% y/y) in electronics & appliance store sales held back overall purchases. They had risen 0.6% in each of the prior two months. Sales of building materials also weakened 1.3% (+5.1% y/y) last month. Apparel store sales fell 1.2% (+1.4% y/y), down hard for the second straight month. Motor vehicle purchases weakened 0.9% (+4.9% y/y) as unit sales of light vehicles (reported earlier this month) eased 0.2%. Rounding out last month's sales weakness was a 0.4% easing (+3.8% y/y) in furniture & home furnishings store sales and a 0.1% slip (+2.5% y/y) in general merchandise store sales. Sales at department stores alone weakened 0.2% (-5.8% y/y) and have been falling steadily during all of the economic expansion. Offsetting some of these declines was a 0.7% increase (7.5% y/y) in nonstore retail sales after a 0.2% rise. These gains followed four consecutive months of decline. Also improving were sporting goods, hobby, book & music store sales by 0.1% (1.9% y/y) which came after two months of strong increase.
Gasoline & service station sales weakened 2.8% (+2.7% y/y) as gasoline prices slumped.
In the nondiscretionary sales categories, food & grocery store sales held steady (4.0% y/y) after easing 0.2% in January. Sales of health & personal care product stores slipped 0.1% (0.6% y/y) following two months of 0.8% increase.
Restaurant purchases fell 0.5% (5.2% y/y) following two months of modest increase.
The retail sales data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics forecast is in the AS1REPNA database.
U.S. Business Inventories Ease in January While Sales Strengthen
by Tom Moeller March 17, 2020
Total business inventories slipped an expected 0.1% (+1.1% y/y) during January following an unrevised 0.1% December gain. The anticipated figure is from the Informa Global Markets survey. Business sales increased 0.6% (+2.1% y/y) following a 0.1% improvement. The rise in sales relative to the inventory decline lowered the inventory-to-sales ratio to 1.38, its lowest point since March of last year.
Retail inventories held steady (0.3% y/y) in January after falling for two months. Motor vehicle dealers' inventories declined 0.6% in January (-2.2% y/y), down for the fourth straight month. Nonauto inventories rose 0.3% (1.7% y/y) after holding steady in December. Inventories of furniture & home furnishings rose 0.5% (-2.6% y/y) following two months of decline. Clothing inventories were off 0.2% (-2.0% y/y), down for six straight months. General merchandise store inventories rose 0.4% (-1.4% y/y) but department store inventories increased 0.7% (-6.3% y/y), the first increase in four months. Wholesale inventories fell 0.4% (+0.4% y/y) after a 0.3% decline. Factory sector inventories eased 0.1% (+2.5% y/y) after a 0.4% strengthening.
Sales at retail stores (not including food services) strengthened 0.6% (4.7% y/y) after easing 0.1% in December. Excluding auto dealers, retail sales improved 0.5% (4.1% y/y) after rising 0.4%. Wholesale sector sales surged 1.6% (2.2% y/y), the largest rise since last March. Shipments from the factory sector declined 0.5% (-0.4% y/y) and reversed December's increase.
The inventory-to-sales ratio in the retail sector declined to 1.42, the lowest level since November 2014. The ratio for retailers excluding auto dealers held steady at 1.18, down from the March 2016 high of 1.29. For merchant wholesalers, the I/S ratio fell to 1.33, a ten-month low. Conversely, the factory sector I/S ratio was steady at 1.40, the highest level since November 2016.
The manufacturing and trade data are in Haver's USECON database.
| Manufacturing & Trade | Jan | Dec | Nov | Jan Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Inventories (% chg) | -0.1 | 0.1 | -0.2 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 5.1 | 3.4 |
| Retail | 0.0 | -0.1 | -0.9 | 0.3 | 1.0 | 4.5 | 2.3 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 0.3 | 0.0 | -0.3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2.0 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | -0.4 | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 2.0 | 7.3 | 3.3 |
| Manufacturing | -0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 4.5 |
| Business Sales (% chg) | |||||||
| Total | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 6.1 | 5.4 |
| Retail | 0.6 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 4.5 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicle | 0.5 | 0.4 | -0.1 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 4.8 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 1.6 | -0.2 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 6.7 | 6.7 |
| Manufacturing | -0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 6.9 | 5.0 |
| I/S Ratio | |||||||
| Total | 1.38 | 1.39 | 1.39 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.36 | 1.38 |
| Retail | 1.42 | 1.43 | 1.43 | 1.48 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.47 |
| Retail excl. Motor Vehicles | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.19 | 1.21 | 1.19 | 1.20 | 1.24 |
| Merchant Wholesalers | 1.33 | 1.36 | 1.36 | 1.35 | 1.35 | 1.29 | 1.30 |
| Manufacturing | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.40 | 1.36 | 1.38 | 1.35 | 1.37 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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