Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
Global| Jul 06 2011

U.S. Gas & Oil Prices Hold Roughly Stable W/W

Summary

The pump price for regular gasoline rose one penny to $3.58 per gallon last week, still nearly the lowest level since mid-March. Since last month's peak, prices have fallen 38 cents but remain up nearly one-third versus last year. [...]


The pump price for regular gasoline rose one penny to $3.58 per gallon last week, still nearly the lowest level since mid-March. Since last month's peak, prices have fallen 38 cents but remain up nearly one-third versus last year. Pump prices usually start rising this time of year with increased seasonal demand. To account for this pattern, Haver Analytics calculates seasonal factors. As a result, the adjusted gasoline price rose slightly to $3.30 per gallon, down 52 cents from the peak. Yesterday, the spot market price for a gallon of regular gasoline rose w/w to $2.91, but still was down from the late-April high of $3.30.

Crude oil prices rose slightly last week to $93.73 for a barrel of WTI but remained down versus the late-April peak of $113.93. Yesterday, crude prices fell further to $96.89, the highest level since mid-June.

Higher prices continued to negatively affect demand for petroleum products. Gasoline demand slipped 0.3% on average during the last four weeks versus last year. Demand for residual fuel oil, used for heating, rose 13.1% y/y while distillate demand fell 4.7%. Inventories of crude oil and petroleum products again fell 2.0% year-to-year compared to 10.0% growth in the middle of 2009.

Finally, natural gas prices held roughly stable w/w at $4.32 per mmbtu. Yesterday, prices ticked up to $4.38 and were down from last year's early-January high of $6.50.

The energy price data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy and can be found in Haver's WEEKLY database. The daily figures are in DAILY and the gasoline demand figures are in OILWKLY

Weekly Price 7/4/11 6/27/11 6/20/11 Y/Y% 2010 2009 2008
Retail Regular Gasoline ($ per Gallon, Regular) 3.58 3.57 3.65 31.3 2.78 2.35 3.25
Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl.) 93.73 92.85 95.89 25.0 79.51 61.39 100.16
Natural Gas ($/mmbtu) 4.32 4.33 4.55 -7.2 4.40 3.95 8.88
  • Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio.   Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984.   He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C.   In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists.   Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.

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