Global| Feb 04 2016U.S. Factory Sector Orders Decline Led by Transportation
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders in the manufacturing sector fell 2.9% during December following a 0.7% easing in November, revised from -0.2%. The decline roughly matched expectations for a 2.7% drop in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The shortfall [...]
New orders in the manufacturing sector fell 2.9% during December following a 0.7% easing in November, revised from -0.2%. The decline roughly matched expectations for a 2.7% drop in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The shortfall reflected a 5.0% decline (-1.6% y/y) in durable goods orders which was little-revised from the advance report. Leading orders lower was a 29.3% drop (+4.8% y/y) in nondefense aircraft & parts orders. Factory sector orders excluding the transportation altogether eased 0.8% (-5.4% y/y), about the same as during the prior month. Orders for nondurable goods (which equal shipments) fell 0.8% (-7.1% y/y), off for the sixth straight month. A 3.3% decline (-27.6%y/y) in shipments from petroleum refineries dropped for the sixth consecutive month as prices fell. Also down by 0.8% (-3.3% y/y) were food product shipments. Basic chemical shipments remained little-changed (-1.1% y/y). Apparel shipments improved 0.4% but they were down slightly versus last year. Durable goods shipments declined 2.1% (-3.1% y/y), led by a 1.0% increase (-4.1% y/y) in machinery.
Unfilled orders in the manufacturing sector eased 0.5% (-2.0% y/y). Transportation sector backlogs also fell 0.5% (-1.8% y/y) led by a 3.2% decline (-2.0% y/y) in defense aircraft & parts. Outside of the transportation sector, backlogs declined 0.5% (-2.2% y/y). Machinery backlogs declined 2.0% (-8.9% y/y) but computer & electronic product backlogs increased 0.2% (5.7% y/y).
Factory sector inventories increased 0.2% (-1.7% y/y), the first increase in six months. Outside of the transportation sector, inventories were off 0.1% (-2.8% y/y), off for the sixth consecutive month. Primary metals inventories fell 0.6% (-12.0% y/y) but machinery inventories gained 0.7% (-0.9% y/y). Electrical equipment & appliance inventories eased 0.4% (-1.7% y/y) while computer & electronic product inventories notched 0.1% higher (0.2% y/y).
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is available in AS1REPNA.
| Factory Sector- NAICS Classification (%) | Dec | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | -2.9 | -0.7 | 1.3 | -4.3 | -6.6 | 3.5 | 2.0 |
| Shipments | -1.4 | -0.1 | -0.7 | -5.1 | -4.3 | 2.6 | 1.9 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | -2.0 | -2.0 | 11.5 | 6.5 |
| Inventories | 0.2 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -1.7 | -1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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