Global| Nov 03 2015U.S. Factory Sector Orders Decline Led by Aircraft
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders in the manufacturing sector fell 1.0% during September (-7.1% y/y) following a revised 2.1% August decline. The drop roughly matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. It was led by a 1.2% decline (-3.5% [...]
New orders in the manufacturing sector fell 1.0% during September (-7.1% y/y) following a revised 2.1% August decline. The drop roughly matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. It was led by a 1.2% decline (-3.5% y/y) in durable goods orders which was unrevised from last week's advance report. The decline was paced by a 36.0% drop (-33.6% y/y) in nondefense aircraft & parts. Factory sector orders excluding the transportation altogether eased 0.6% (-8.6% y/y), the fifth shortfall in the last six months. Orders for nondurable goods (which equal shipments) declined 0.8% (-10.5% y/y), the third straight monthly drop. A 5.7% decline (-38.8% y/y) in shipments from petroleum refineries led the way lower as prices fell. Also declining by 0.2% (+2.4% y/y) were apparel shipments. Food product shipments improved 0.4% (-0.6% y/y) and basic chemical shipments nudged 0.1% higher (-1.3% y/y). Textile mill shipments improved 0.3% but they were down 1.9% y/y. Durable goods shipments increased 0.6% (0.8% y/y) led by a 0.7% increase in electrical equipment, appliances & components.
Unfilled orders in the manufacturing sector declined 0.5% (-2.2% y/y). Transportation sector backlogs fell 0.7% (-2.5% y/y), led by a 0.9% decline (-1.5% y/y) in nondefense aircraft & parts. Outside of the transportation sector, backlogs eased 0.2% (-1.4% y/y). Electrical equipment backlogs fell 0.3% (-0.4% y/y), the sixth decline in as many months, but computer & electronic product backlogs gained 0.2% (+6.9% y/y).
Factory sector inventories declined 0.4% (-1.7% y/y), about as they have during the last three months. Outside of the transportation sector, inventories fell 0.3% (-3.2% y/y). Primary metals inventories were off 0.9% (-7.1% y/y) and machinery inventories were roughly unchanged (-0.7% y/y). Electrical equipment & appliance inventories fell 0.6% (+0.1% y/y) but computer & electronic product inventories fell 1.0% (+1.7% y/y).
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is available in AS1REPNA.
| Factory Sector- NAICS Classification (%) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | -1.0 | -2.1 | 0.2 | -7.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 4.7 |
| Shipments | -0.4 | -0.9 | -0.2 | -5.0 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 4.7 |
| Unfilled Orders | -0.5 | -0.3 | 0.2 | -2.2 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 7.8 |
| Inventories | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 3.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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