Global| Dec 05 2014U.S. Factory Sector Orders Decline As Petroleum Prices Fall
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
New orders to all manufacturers fell 0.7% (+2.1% y/y) during October following a 0.5% decline. No change in orders was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Orders for nondurable goods (which equal shipments) declined 1.5% [...]
New orders to all manufacturers fell 0.7% (+2.1% y/y) during October following a 0.5% decline. No change in orders was expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Orders for nondurable goods (which equal shipments) declined 1.5% (-1.1% y/y) as the value of petroleum shipments fell 6.3% (-9.3% y/y) due to lower prices. Chemical shipments also fell 1.1% (-2.2% y/y). To the upside, apparel shipments rose 3.0% (11.3% y/y) and food product shipments gained 1.2% (7.5% y/y). Shipments of durables ticked 0.1% higher (5.7% y/y). Transportation equipment shipments gained 0.8% (3.8% y/y), led by a 2.6% rise in heavy duty trucks. New orders for durable goods rose 0.3% (5.5% y/y), initially reported as 0.4%. Transportation equipment orders rose 3.4% (3.9% y/y) but machinery orders fell 1.4% (+6.0 y/y).
Unfilled orders increased 0.4% (12.3% y/y) for the second month while order backlogs excluding the transportation sector rose 0.4% (6.9% y/y). Electrical equipment backlogs rose 1.4% (14.3% y/y) and unfilled orders of computers & electronic products gained 0.7% (6.9% y/y). Unfilled orders of furniture improved 0.9% (12.2% y/y) but machinery backlogs slipped 0.4% (+10.9% y/y).
Inventories in the factory sector ticked 0.1% higher (3.5% y/y). In the durable goods sector, inventories rose 0.5% (6.0% y/y). Primary metals inventories gained 0.9% (8.1% y/y) but electrical equipment inventories retreated 1.2% (-3.8% y/y). Amongst nondurable goods industries, inventories declined 0.5% (-0.2% y/y). Petroleum inventories dropped 3.6% (-9.0% y/y), basic chemicals slipped 0.1% (+0.7% y/y) but apparel inventories rose 3.1% (25.3% y/y).
The factory sector figures are available in Haver's USECON database.
| Factory Sector- NAICS Classification (%) | Oct | Sep | Aug | Y/Y | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orders | -0.7 | -0.5 | -10.0 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 12.9 |
| Shipments | -0.8 | 0.1 | -1.1 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 4.0 | 12.1 |
| Inventories | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 10.2 |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 12.3 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 10.0 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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