Global| Apr 01 2011U.S. Factory Sector Momentum Stalls
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Still near its recent high, the Composite Index of activity in the factory sector from the Institute for Supply Management slipped to 61.2 from an unrevised 61.4 in February. The figure roughly matched Consensus expectations for 61.3. [...]
Still near its recent high, the Composite Index of activity in the factory sector from the Institute for Supply Management slipped to 61.2 from an unrevised 61.4 in February. The figure roughly matched Consensus expectations for 61.3. Nevertheless, the latest reading continued to indicate positive factory growth and was the twentieth consecutive monthly figure above the break-even 50. It was up from the low of 32.5 reached in December '08. (Any figure above the break-even point of 50 suggests rising activity.)
Declines in most of the component ISM series contributed to the downtick in the composite index. The largest m/m decline was in new orders to the lowest level since December. The jobs figure also fell but it only reversed half of its February gain. The inventory index fell to its lowest since June of last year. Offsetting the declines last month were increases in production, to the highest level since January 2004, and supplier deliveries, indicating the slowest delivery speeds in twelve months.
The separate index of prices paid rose to 85.0, its highest level since July 2008 and up from the December '08 low of 18.0. Seventy-two percent of respondents reported higher prices while just two percent indicated lower prices.
The ISM figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The forecast data is in the AS1REPNA database.
Regulating Systemic Risk is yesterday's speech by Fed Governor Daniel K. Tarullo and it can be found here.
| ISM Mfg | Mar | Feb | Jan | Feb'10 | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Index | 61.2 | 61.4 | 60.8 | 60.4 | 57.3 | 46.3 | 45.5 |
| New Orders | 63.3 | 68.0 | 67.8 | 62.9 | 59.2 | 51.6 | 42.1 |
| Employment | 63.0 | 64.5 | 61.7 | 55.8 | 57.3 | 40.5 | 43.3 |
| Production | 69.0 | 66.3 | 63.5 | 64.3 | 61.1 | 50.5 | 45.1 |
| Supplier Deliveries | 63.1 | 59.4 | 58.6 | 64.1 | 58.1 | 51.5 | 51.6 |
| Inventories | 47.4 | 48.8 | 52.4 | 54.7 | 50.8 | 37.1 | 45.5 |
| Prices Paid Index (NSA) | 85.0 | 82.0 | 81.5 | 75.0 | 68.9 | 48.3 | 66.5 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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